Japan is moving towards positive interest rates in a surprise move by their central bank.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-stocks-set-fall-inflation-223841938.html
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Suggestion based on market movement that someone got the CPI leaked two minutes ahead of the Dec release. White House response: âI think weâre looking into it a little too muchâ
https://twitter.com/mayhem4markets/status/1604624657654710272?s=46&t=F_LVZ_izx1B_XPR_8BiyeQ
Guess it was leaked to someone on the âright teamâ
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About #&%$* time! Theyâve kept them too low for too long. Maybe they were slightly worried about the exchange rate, and didnât want to go back to the 1970s.
The Dukes hired Beeks, and Beeks is kicking 10% back to the Big Guy!
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So many jobs!
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The Philly Fed is claiming that the BLS overstated employment by over 1MM jobs.
For TIPS holders like me, this brings the question of the CPI numbers accuracy. We all know of the infamous hedonic corrections. A whole lot of fudging going on here.
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The strains are largely linked to aggressive rate increases by the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world, which have dramatically changed the landscape for lending, upended credit markets and pushed economies toward recessions, a scenario that markets have yet to price in.
Globally, almost $650 billion of bonds and loans are in distressed territory, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Itâs all adding up to the biggest test of the robustness of corporate credit since the financial crisis and may be the spark for a wave of defaults.
âMany are likely to be slightly more complacent than they should be,â said Will Nicoll, chief investment officer of Private & Alternative Assets at M&G. âIt is very difficult to see how the default cycle will not run its course, given the level of interest rates.â
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Uh, who had this idea? An alternative view - The strains are largely due to excessive and needless borrowing, combined with a lack of economic awareness by both borrowers and lenders alike.
Someone else might end up being transitory
TALK IN DC IS THAT THE WHITE HOUSE LOOKING FOR A DECENT DECLINE IN INFLATION AS THE TRIGGER TO MAKE A CHANGE AT US TREASURY SO US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN â WHO TOUTED TRANSITORY INFLATION â CAN LEAVE GRACEFULLY - FOX BUSINESS REPORTER TWEETS.
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Fed minutes comments
- FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS OBSERVED THAT SLOWING INTEREST RATE INCREASES WOULD ALLOW CENTRAL BANK TO ASSESS PROGRESS ON INFLATION, EMPLOYMENT
- FED WARY OF AN `UNWARRANTEDâ EASING IN FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
- MANY FED OFFICIALS HIGHLIGHTED NEED TO BALANCE TWO-SIDED RISKS
- FED OFFICIALS GENERALLY SAW INFLATION RISKS AS A KEY FACTOR - BBG
- FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS AGREED THAT THE FED HAD MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN MOVING TO A SUFFICIENTLY RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICY STANCE IN THE PREVIOUS YEAR.
- FED OFFICIALS CITED RISK INFLATION COULD BE MORE PERSISTENT
- A COUPLE OF FED OFFICIALS SAW INFLATION RISKS AS MORE BALANCED
- FED WARY OF AN `UNWARRANTEDâ EASING IN FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
- FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS AT THE FED"S POLICY MEETING ON DECEMBER 13-14 PREDICTED THAT FURTHER INCREASES IN THE FED FUNDS RATE WOULD BE APPROPRIATE.
- FOMC Minutes: Officials Said Further Rate Increases Would Be Necessary --WSJ
- FOMC Minutes: Officials Agreed Rate Cuts Shouldnât Happen in 2023 --WSJ
- FOMC Minutes: Officials Emphasized Need for âFlexibility and Optionalityâ in Policy Decisions --WSJ
- FED MINUTES: NO ONE PREDICTED THAT RATE CUTS WOULD BE NECESSARY IN 2023.
- FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS OBSERVED THAT SLOWING INTEREST RATE INCREASES WOULD ALLOW THE CENTRAL BANK TO ASSESS INFLATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROGRESS.
- FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS AGREED THAT THE FED HAD MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN THE PREVIOUS YEAR TOWARD A SUFFICIENTLY RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICY STANCE.
- FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS OBSERVED THAT SLOWING INTEREST RATE HIKES WOULD ALLOW THE CENTRAL BANK TO ASSESS INFLATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROGRESS.
- FED MINUTES: MOST PARTICIPANTS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF RETAINING FLEXIBILITY AND OPTIONALITY WHEN ADOPTING A MORE RESTRICTIVE STANCE.
- FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS WELCOMED OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER INFLATION DROPS, BUT AGREED THAT IT WOULD TAKE âSUBSTANTIALLY MORE EVIDENCEâ OF PROGRESS TO BE CONFIDENT OF A SUSTAINED DOWNWARD PATH.
- FED MINUTES: SEVERAL PARTICIPANTS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF COMMUNICATING THAT A SLOWDOWN IN RATE INCREASES IS NOT AN INDICATION OF A WEAKENING COMMITMENT TO ACHIEVING PRICE STABILITY OR THAT INFLATION IS ALREADY ON A PERSISTENT DOWNWARD PATH.
- FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS INDICATED THAT UPSIDE INFLATION RISKS REMAINED A KEY FACTOR IN SHAPING POLICY OUTLOOK.
- Risk of Inflation Accelerating Faster Than Anticipated âKey Factorâ in Shaping Policy
- Staff Economic Forecast Not as Weak as at November Meeting
- THE FOMC MINUTES CONTAIN ALMOST NO DISCUSSION OF HOW MUCH OFFICIALS INTEND TO RAISE INTEREST RATES AT THEIR FEBRUARY MEETING - WSJ TIMIRAOS
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CPI monthly chart
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bump
Some nice charts around page 30 for inflation but lots generally on the Fed, markets, sentiment, etc.
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JPow is not a climate zealot.
- FEDâS POWELL: DOES NOT COMMENT ON CURRENT U.S. ECONOMIC OR MONETARY POLICY OUTLOOK IN PREPARED REMARKS FOR SWEDENâS RIKSBANK SYMPOSIUM ON CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE
- FEDâS POWELL: RESTORING PRICE STABILITY WHEN INFLATION IS HIGH CAN REQUIRE MEASURES NOT POPULAR IN SHORT TERM
- FEDâS POWELL: FED SHOULD âNOT WANDER OFF TO PURSUE PERCEIVED SOCIAL BENEFITSâ NOT TIGHTLY LINKED TO MANDATE
- FEDâS POWELL: FED MUST RESIST TEMPTATION TO BROADEN ITS SCOPE TO ADDRESS OTHER IMPORTANT SOCIAL ISSUES
- FEDâS POWELL: TAKING ON SUCH GOALS WOULD UNDERMINE OUR INDEPENDENCE
- FEDâS POWELL: WE ARE NOT AND WILL NOT BE A âCLIMATE POLICYMAKERâ
- FEDâS POWELL: FED HAS NARROW RESPONSIBILITIES REGARDING CLIMATE-RELATED FINANCIAL RISKS
- FEDâS POWELL: WITHOUT CONGRESSIONAL LAWS, INAPPROPRIATE FOR US TO USE OUR MONETARY OR SUPERVISORY TOOLS TO PROMOTE A GREENER ECONOMY
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BS. Hereâs a statement from the Fed last month
December 02, 2022
Federal Reserve Board invites public comment on proposed principles providing a high-level framework for the safe and sound management of exposures to climate-related financial risks for large banking organizations
Banks managing climate-related financial risks is not setting climate policy.
Fed watching
Bowman: âWe Have a Lot More Work to Doâ to Lower Inflation
Bowman: Inflation Is Much Too High
Bowman: Expects Additional Rate Increases to Be Necessary
Bowman: Size of Future Increases Will Depend on Data
Bowman: âWe Have a Lot More Work to Doâ to Lower Inflation
Bowman: Inflation Is Much Too High
Bowman: Expects Additional Rate Increases to Be Necessary
Bowman: Size of Future Increases Will Depend on Data
Bowman: Fed Will Need to Hold Rates âFor Some Timeâ After Last Hike
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The Fed, a government agency, getting involved is âsetting climate policy.â If the banks, as private companies, want to get involved with this foolishness itâs up to them but why is the Fed involved?
I think you are misunderstanding. Banks arent âgetting involved withâ the foolishness, theyâre assessing possible risks derriving from that foolishness.
Its no different than evaluating the risk of flooding when making investments along a riverbank. Yet youâd claim that such evaluation is trying to set flood management policies.
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I claim that the Fed getting involved with forcing banks to include global warning in deciding on loans is setting government policy. What else can it be? The fed is a branch of the federal government. Their head is appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate.
Further, the Fed mandate makes no mention of climate. The Supreme Court in West Virginia V EPA ruled that there has to be an explicit statement in the enabling law for an agency to enact regulations. Tell me where the fedâs mandate has anything to do with climate.