Inflation/stagflation Thread

Is it? Because the WTI graphs I’m looking at show that it was only slightly below $70 for only a few days in March, and it again dipped slightly below $70 (to ~$68) just today. Brent, which I believe is less relevant, has not yet been below $70.

The price of oil is well below $70 a barrel.

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No, it is not WELL BELOW. It’s less than 3% below, and that literally only happened on May 3rd. You complained about SPR dumping 2mm barrels in April. The price during all of April was above $70. Maybe the dumping is what caused it to finally go below $70.

Huh? Is there another election around the corner? Maybe there is a special election somewhere.

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I say that is “well below”. Also, markets anticipate. The current price is a reflection of the past actions and predictions about the future.

Well, it’s at 69.17 now. At what point would you say it’s no longer “well below”?

When did $70 become the magic target number? I understand wanting to decrease the price when oil is over $100 (even though that’s still a pretty arbitrary number), but why are we still trying to manipulate the price when it’s anywhere near $70?

I’m starting to think this is the strategy - bleed the reserve dry, then suddenly one day announce that it’s going to cost $X-billion to replenish the SPR (and doing so will also increase oil prices)…or we could instead invest less in alternative energy solutions* and render the SPR obsolete. The more they drain it, the higher the replenishment cost will be, and the more attractive those alternatives will look making it an easier sell.

*Yes, this ignores the fact that there are not any viable alternatives…which makes the prediction all the more likely to be correct.

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Not if the replenish price is less than the drain price.

IIRC bringing the price below $70 was a stated goal, was it not?

It is at 50% of the level during the Trump administration. If you study the graph at the zerohedge article, almost all the drawdown by the regime occurred during the last year. And a large part of it was sold to China.

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I mean in total, as a lump sum. “It’s going to cost $X billion to replenish the reserves…or we could instead put that money into [whatever] to replace oil and terminate the whole SPR.”

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Good thing Democrats blocked filling up the SPR back when people were paying premiums to not have to take delivery, or that number would look even worse!

That’s a red herring. The oil was dumped on the market, and it lowers the market price for everyone. Where a given barrel is delivered is a meaningless technicality, since the barrels are generic. And it’s not like us withholding those barrels would’ve resulted in China getting none; it would’ve taken supply away from the entire market.

Making such statements only [falsely] imply that we purposefully gave away low price oil to China in some sort of off-market side deal. Which really wouldnt surprise me if it did come out to be true, but to date there’s been no such claims.

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See the article that I linked. The SPR oil came on the market just as China was undoing their draconian Covid policy. Coincidence or not, the Biden regime definitely helped the CCP.

Data from the U.S. Department of Energy show that the U.S. trading subsidiary of China’s state refining company UNIPEC purchased just under 2 million barrels of SPR oil in 2022. But that figure is likely low since SPR sales are unrestricted, meaning refiners and traders that purchase SPR oil can sell those barrels to other buyers as they please.

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Well, yeah, since China buys off the same market as we do, any action to help our price is going to have the same effect on their price since it’s the same price. You simply cannot do one without the other. And like I said, I wouldnt be surprised if it were to come out that this was being done to benefit the Chinese, but the only relevant accusations thusfar have been that the releases are being done for Democrat domestic political gain.

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And people are scratching their heads at the Oracle of Omaha buying Occidental and Chevron. :smile:

Meanwhile, crickets from the left-wing media about the SPR scandal

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CPI out. April at +0.4% is about 4.9% annualized.

US Apr Consumer Prices 0.4%; Consensus 0.4%
US Apr CPI Ex-Food & Energy 0.4%; Consensus 0.4%
US Apr Consumer Prices Increase 4.9% From Year Earlier; Core CPI Up 5.5% Over Year
US Apr CPI Energy Prices 0.6%; Food Prices Unchanged

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Wells Fargo commentary on CPI, and some nice charts.

https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/html/f47e6381-bff1-477f-a174-24edc3b58342

Screen Shot 2023-05-10 at 11.02.05 PM

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At first thought, a very redundant comment. Then I remembered a couple of non-mainstream networks. :blush:

That seems kinda’ mild … until you remember it’s comparison year’s rate.

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One reason that airline fares are going through the roof so to speak.

He can’t keep younger pilots because making $500,000 to $600,000 per year at a mainline airline is straightforward (see “American Airlines CEO tells pilots the carrier is prepared to increase pay to up to $590,000 a year” (NBC) for example). “Captains at United who know how to work the schedule are making over $1 million per year,” he said.

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