There’s probably plenty of fraud in other states. Reason for the Fed to keep on increasing interest rates.
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With inflation what it is, is sales growth really growth? A 7.4% increase is basically the same business volume as last year with inflation baked in.
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I suppose not, if you assume that all Walmart shoppers had 7.4% more money to spend. Somehow I doubt that’s the case, so there’s at least some growth. 
Or that they had to spend 7.4% more to get what they need. I seem to recall a recent article about record personal credit card debt, customers having more money to spend is an unrelated topic.
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Do I hear distant rumblings of the next Democrat election promise - the Biden Personal Debt Bailout? 
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More data on inflation points towards higher inflation, possibly more Fed rate hikes.
Early Friday, the government said Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices rose 0.4% in April, slightly higher than the 0.3% analysts had expected. Core PCE prices, which strip out food and energy, also rose 0.4%. PCE prices are closely watched by the Federal Reserve, and the latest numbers suggest inflation remains stubbornly hotter than expectations and may fuel renewed concerns over additional rate hikes in upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.*
Core PCE is now up 4.7% year-over-year. It’s been 0.3% or higher month-over-month in each of the first four months of 2023, with no real sign of slowing. Also Friday, it was reported that April Personal Spending rose 0.8% versus expectations on Wall Street for an increase of 0.4%.*
Recent inflation data, combined with hawkish comments from Fed officials, have prompted investors to sharply scale back expectations the central bank will take a “pause” in its year-long rate hiking path, and market watchers have growing expectations the Fed may in fact increase rates next month.*
FED FUNDS FUTURES ARE NOW PRICING IN A 63% CHANCE OF A FED HIKE IN JUNE - FEDWATCH.
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The 10 year note yield dropped 11 basis points to 3.7%, but the two year note yield held steady at about 4.6%.
That is quite an inversion.
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"I think everyone should be prepared for rates going higher from here…I think there’s a chance you’re going to have rates ticking up…I’m talking about…maybe even 7. " — JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon .
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From the post above, the core PCE is 4.7% so this is only about 2% above inflation. And that’s before taxes.
Another way to look at that is that the banks are having to pay over 5% on savings just to compete with T-bill rates.
We got so used to the reckless printing of money by the Fed with quantitative easing that we think it’s normal.
“If Something Cannot Go on Forever, It Will Stop“
Herbert Stein
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The probability of a rate hike by the Fed at the next meeting increases
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They already briefly hit 7 a few days ago. The problem with this prediction is that mortgage rates are most closely correlated with the 10-year Treasury Note. And during normal times the spread above the Note is about 1.75%. Lately it has been closer to 3%. In other words, mortgages are 1.25% higher than they should be. As long as there’s no reason for the 10-year note to move higher, there should also be no reason for mortgages to move higher.
I think this reflects both the banking sectors reduced desire to lend, due to liquidity concerns and bank runs, and the higher risk associated with real estate currently. Both of these impact the mortgage spread over treasury rates.
Also when Jamie Dimon was talking about rates potentially going to 7% he was talking about risk free federal interest rates, not mortgage rates.
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My bad, I saw the headline about real estate and assumed he was talking about mortgage rates.
More data pointing to an increase in the fed funds rate at the next meeting
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The futures took a dive between your posts. The probability of a hike stands at around 30% today.
That is interesting. As Samuel Johnson said about second marriages, they are a triumph of hope over experience.
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Hilarious. The thing is, I have doubts that the articles you posted increase the likelihood or the need to increase the Fed funds rate. Payroll came in better than expected, but unemployment still went up. The Fed is supposed to keep inflation down without killing the job market, and I think both the unexpectedly high job openings and the unemployment going up (per the most recent two articles you linked) both actually decrease the likelihood of a rate increase.
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Let’s see if they actually make the production cuts
Update (1205ET): OPEC+ members in Vienna have agreed to extend crude production cuts into 2024.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia committed to an additional voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day as part of this agreement, adding that they “will do whatever is necessary” to stabilize the oil market.
Russia will extend its voluntary oil production cut of 500,000 barrels per day until the end of December 2024, Reuters reported, citing Russian DeputyPrime Minister.
The agreement was made after various OPEC African members delayed the meeting following their concerns over “productions quotas from which cuts are calculated, with some African nations still objecting to the proposals,” according to Bloomberg. Still, members overcame the issues and agreed on a broader deal.
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…and Biden continues to offset those cuts with SPR releases…
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Yeah, right. They don’t need any money. There is nothing going on in their part of the world, so they can sit back and lie in the sun.
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