As do we. We’ll celebrate Thanksgiving on Saturday, since the Friday turkeys will be 12¢/lb. 
As for other foods, the spices that we buy are up about 13% over the last year, as is broccoli. I buy a bag of cheap potato chips twice per year. They have been 79¢ a bag ~8oz. for at least 3 years. Now they are $1.50 a bag. I didn’t buy them, and will reward myself with two if our FED saviours aren’t lying about inflation being transitory.
Given that:
The corollary to that is the FED saying that inflation is temporary (or better yet “there’s no inflation”). So if we believe there will be no inflation, that too will manifest into reality.
Therefore… they’re only lying if people don’t believe them. 
I’d like to give two “likes” for that statement, because it made me think and laugh.
Sadly, I’ll go for the cheapshot and suggest “they’re only lying if … they’re saying anything”.
Our home AC compressor blew up last summer and we had to sweat it out for about a month. I looked at buying a new unit and the price was 4600.
Carrier typically only raises their prices on units once a year but because there is so much inflation they are now raising prices 4-5 times a year.
The price went to 4800 a month later and then 5070 a month after that, so we are talking about 10% inflation in a few months. Antecodal for sure but inflation is really picking up for some things.
I went ahead and bought it even though I won’t need it until April\May because 1) The price is only going to keep going up so why pay more in the future 2) Other people are probably coming to the same conclusion 3) Supply shortages may mean people that wait will have to do without
The fact that consumers and businesses are changing their behavior and pricing strategies because they anticipate higher inflation should raise alarm bells.
I had my home A/C compressor replaced in June for $950. It didn’t blow up, just wasn’t working properly. Also supposedly the part was still under warranty so maybe that was just labor (which is nuts for 2 hours of labor, but it was way less than a few other quotes I got). Another quote included the compressor cost of about $1K. How big is your system? Or did you buy more than just the compressor?
[quote=“xerty, post:168, topic:4327, full:true”]
That was snort worthy! 
Could it be seasonal? I know prices rarely go down but if you look at it now that nobody is looking to replace their A/Cs, how are the prices? But I can believe that it’d be down to high demand meet supply shortage.
We replaced some of our windows last year and was looking at doing a couple more from the very same vendor this year (did not really need to replace these 2 but would look better).
I know exactly how much they cost us last summer and it was about 30% more now. Now business was super slow last year so maybe prices were a bit depressed but still. So I shopped around and all prices were pretty much in the same ballpark give or take $100-200 for similar windows.
And lead time is atrocious. It took them 6 weeks from order to installation last year. Now their lead time was 7 months! Rep said it’s combination of having lots of work from people who delayed purchases last year, fewer people working, and lack of supply for some parts to manufacture the windows themselves. One other vendor said they had to close their windows manufacturing plant for 3 weeks due to lack of parts (and they offered very little discount off retail probably for that reason).
In the end, I delayed my order since it did not seem worth the premium and I’m hoping prices will stabilize once demand drops back to normal and supplies return to normal in a year or two. We’ll see how that turns out. But yeah some things are massively more expensive than a year ago. Although that’s possibly a notable caveat since a year ago was probably the lowest prices in a long while.
The price l33tsauce is listing looks like a complete unit and may have even included a swap of a matched air handler.
Your price (< $1k) sounds like a single component being replaced in the larger system.
Gas prices. A cynical read on the ESG and policy created high energy costs.
You don’t think they’ll use gas stimmys??
Friend: Gas stimmys??
They’ll give out stimmys to anyone who consumes gasoline. Maybe they won’t give stimmys to hedgies like us, but they’ll make sure everyone else qualifies. C’mon, this is the 2020’s and nothing about economic policy is supposed to make sense anymore. Of course, they’ll respond when the peasants complain about the price of oil.
Friend: So, you’re saying that the higher oil goes, the higher demand goes?
Sure. Why not? They’ve literally re-written the laws of economics. While they’re restricting supply, they’ll also increase demand. Heck, they’ll probably tax the oil companies for “excess profits” along the way. These people are insane.
However, I cannot see how the ESG crowd can focus on creating an energy crisis, while not at least pretending to help the plebs. Investors are looking at a world based on prior constructs, mean-reverting cycles, where governments were constricted by spending limits, where there were unspoken rules and principles of economics. What if supply and demand no longer drive price discovery? When the government has a printing press, these ancient laws become obsolete.
The actual proposed bill isn’t that far off, including taxing gas and giving out credits for alt energy use
Good macro piece on inflation and labor and rising consumer goods pricing
In particular citing as we discussed earlier that higher prices haven’t yet reduced demand in consumer goods
They’re dumping some of the Strategic Democrat Midterm Bailout Reserve starting officially today, and burning some of our diplomatic capital to help subsidize it too.
WHITE HOUSE SAYS BIDEN ANNOUNCES RELEASE FROM THE STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE
*U.S. SPR RELEASE INI PARALLEL WITH CHINA, INDIA, JAPAN, U.K.
WHITE HOUSE SAYS WILL MAKE AVAILABLE UP TO 50 MILLION BBLS OF OIL FROM U.S. STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE
WHITE HOUSE SAYS BIDEN READY TO TAKE ADDITIONAL ACTION ON OIL PRICES IF NECESSARY
INDIA TO RELEASE 5 MLN BBLS OIL - GOVT STATEMENT
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL SAYS WHITE HOUSE WILL CONTINUE TALKING TO INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS ON GAS PRICE ISSUES
Haven’t they heard the cure for high prices is … high prices? Nah, that’s some sorta free market voodoo, the solution to anything is more government intervention.
They are dumping 50 million barrels. But that is only about 2.5 days consumption.
Seems a bit of a knee-jerk reaction to me but on the other hand, what’s the reserve for. Sitting on 600M BBLS or 550M BBLS doesn’t move the needle much either on our oil independence. Not that it’ll move the needle much on gas prices since we’ll still face lower supply than demand for a while.
Just seems like Biden wanted to look like his administration is doing something even if it’ll likely be more symbolic than anything.
Takes gun, aims at your foot.
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1463252168656441349?s=20
Also, oil prices were up today despite the strategic oil reserve release.
So…,does this mean they’ll start stopping all the illegals crossing the boarder?
25% inflation hits Dollar Tree
Wonder how much inflation is being driven by all those unprosecuted theft losses? I mean, if you’re on low margins with rising costs to begin with, it takes a lot of volume to make up for 100% losses letting your product walk out the door as “reparations”.
You know this problem is starting to become a political hot potato when CNN reports it:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/23/us/smash-and-grab-thefts-explainer-cec/index.html
And let’s see what CNN lists as the reasons …
Such cases aren’t always a priority for law enforcement
Thieves may face few consequences
The holidays provide more opportunities for theft
There are numerous places to sell stolen items
And CNN stays true to form - the number one reason: law enforcement.
I gotta say, I was surprised they didn’t find a way to squeeze “structural racism” into their explanation of the looting…