I don’t think I’ve ever come across a grocery item from Ukraine. I recall three from Russia – vodka, caviar and Trader Joe’s pine nuts.
But the problem in the immediate future is not the exports from Ukraine, but the supplies of food and fuel inside Ukraine.
Ukraine makes 90% of neon which is used in chips. How do we trade/invest in that?
Wow! Ukraine = Crayola.
They’re about 1/4 of the global wheat market, so you’d see that in higher prices for finished goods like bread, etc (more inflation basically). also corn and some vegetable oils.
Ukraine and Russia are key exporters of wheat, with both accounting for a combined 23% of global wheat trade in 2021-22 marketing year, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
Ukraine is the world’s largest producer of sunflower oil followed by Russia. The two countries accounted for 60% of the global production in 2020-21.
Ukraine is one of the world’s largest corn exporters, representing 16% of 2021-22 marketing year’s total global corn exports and concerns are emerging that shipments from the country could be disrupted by the invasion impacting global corn supplies.
Wheat futures are up 10% on the invasion.
Used in chipMAKING (in lasers), not in chips.
As in corn chips. 
About that unified front on sanctions…
INDIA EXPLORING SETTING UP RUPEE TRADE ACCOUNTS WITH RUSSIA TO SOFTEN BLOW ON NEW DELHI OF WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA -SOURCES
Sanctions, of course. China happy to help / oppose.
@DeItaone - CHINA’S XI TOLD PUTIN HE RESPECTS RUSSIA’S ACTIONS, AFFIRMED READINESS FOR CLOSE COORDINATION AND MUTUAL SUPPORT AT UNITED NATIONS - KREMLIN
@DeItaone - PUTIN AND XI SAID USE OF SANCTIONS TO ACHIEVE SELFISH GOALS OF INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES WAS UNACCEPTABLE - KREMLIN
Yeah and while the materials are key for chipmaking equipment which could impact chipmaking the industry has prepared.
An actual quote on the topic from a chipmaker :
“there’s no need to worry”.
-SKHynix CEO
Yes. I’ve seen Ukraine called the ‘breadbasket of Europe’.
US is mostly an exporter of food items like grains so we wouldn’t be having a supply impact here but the prices worldwide are impacted.
Also I’m not a farmer… but I think since it is February and I don’t think lots agriculture work is done this time of year. It doesn’t look like this war will last all that long, unfortunately for Ukraine. So the actual discruption to agriculture may be minimal. Maybe?
Lots of agricultural planning is done as soon as a crop is harvested. In the South, potatoes are in the ground, tomato seeds will be germinating within 10 days, and ground has been / is being prepped for the spring planting. I realize that the South is not the breadbasket of America, but big agriculture plans a lot further out than 90 days.
Some Russian stocks look ridiculously cheap. I suppose the risk is they get delisted off the stock market and are worth $0? Or SWIFT sanctions make it impossible to operate their business?
Former Russian president Medvedev, who’s also Putin’s friend and a lapdog, gave a speech today.
Among other things he said Russia might nationalize foreigner’s assets and of the companies, registered outside of Russia (which might refer to RU companies with HQ outside of the country, like Yandex) - as a retaliation against Western sanctions.
Sounds like a pretty big gamble but might make sense from a risk\reward perspective if stocks fall something like 90%.
They could get delisted yes. They might also stop paying dividends to foreigners due to the SWIFT thing, which is a large part of their attraction.
If things really heat up, there are plenty of ways for a Russian company to basically wipe out or heavily dilute the shares held by foreigners, ala some below market rights or distribution of new shares that require you to send funds to Russia to claim your shares (which you won’t be able to do under the sanctions).
For now I think there are still energy exceptions to the swift ban, so maybe it doesn’t matter as much as it could, but I guess that’s still TBD.
This is a great article by Greenwald on wartime propaganda and silencing of political dissent. After all, only a Russian sympathizer or traitor would disagree with Liz Cheney…
If only we could put social media to good use rather than just demanding another war…
bump
Short term gains for cheap oil, etc. It’s going to hurt them long term by emboldening China.
Not sure exactly, but they may be banning foreign trades in Russian stocks, specifically sales of existing holdings.
Ruble down 20-30% today