Investment impact of Russia Ukraine crisis

Here’s Pakistan and also Laos. It’s never one thing, but doubling fuel prices breaks a lot of marginal economies.

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EU sanctioning themselves.

  • SWISS GOVERNMENT: CANNOT RULE OUT GAS SHORTAGES THIS WINTER, COULD RESORT TO RATIONING IF NEEDED

  • SHELL CEO SAYS IMPOSSIBLE TO REPLACE EUROPE’S RUSSIAN PIPELINE GAS SUPPLIES WITH LNG, SEES PROBLEMATIC WINTER

  • SHELL CEO SAYS SEEING AN EVER TIGHTER OIL & GAS MARKET, UPWARD PRESSURE ON OIL PRICES FOR TIME TO COME

  • SHELL CEO SAYS WORLD SHORT OF REFINING CAPACITY BECAUSE OF VOLUNTARY SHUTDOWNS, RUSSIA AND CHINA NOT EXPORTING OIL PRODUCTS

  • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS WE HAVE NOT YET BEEN INFORMED ABOUT DETENTION OF TANKER WITH RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTS BY U.S. AUTHORITIES - IFAX

  • GERMANY PRELIM JUNE CONSUMER PRICES RISE 7.6% Y/Y; EST. 7.9%

  • GERMANY PRELIM JUNE EU HARMONIZED CPI RISES 8.2% Y/Y

Meanwhile, from the “you don’t ask, you don’t get” arm of the Ukrainian government,

  • ZELENSKIY: WE NEED 5 BILLION DOLLARS A MONTH FOR ITS DEFENCE AND PROTECTION
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Bump

Cheap yachts, care of US expropriation.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/law/here-s-your-chance-to-buy-a-russian-oligarch-s-superyacht/2-1-1247556

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Nothing more expensive than the maintenance on a “cheap” boat :stuck_out_tongue:

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Looks like Ukraine is maybe going bankrupt too, or at least getting close.

  • UKRAINE TO EXPLORE DEBT RESTRUCTURING AS PAYMENTS LOOM

Meanwhile, about those sanctions

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The map of questionable morals.

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On a global basis, it is your morals that are deemed to be questionable. As hard as we keep trying, we don’t get to set the standard for everyone else.

Although Google also tells me China has 18% of the global GDP, so I’m not sure how China and a handful of other countries can only total 16.8%?

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I mean, the US is the biggest military aggressor in the post Cold War era by a huge margin. Even now, we’re running or supporting military campaigns in Syria, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen, and only recently exited Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq. So we are setting the standards for military coups and we just don’t like it when someone else like Russia or China might see themselves as powerful enough to get away with doing likewise.

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Right, because who would ever question the (official) morals of Cuba, Venezuela and North Korea?

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Just sayin’, you are on the opposite side of 2/3 of the world.

Reminds me of socialism during the cold war. At some point in time, about 2/3 of the planet’s population was under a socialist system.

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That doesn’t mean I’m wrong.

But also – it makes little sense to assign the UN vote to the population of the entire country. This map is like the US election map – just because most of it looks red, doesn’t mean most Americans voted for Republicans. Not 100% of Americans support Ukraine, and not 100% of Chinese support Russia. But even if that was the case for China, Chinese media is manipulated, and freedom of speech or the press does not exist.

The map is a representation of strategic interests. Those who support Russia’s invasion do so for their own benefit, not because it is just or moral.

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Sanctions - take that, Russian oil exports.

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Well, yeah. But you’re the one who called “the map of questionable morals”.

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And I stand by it. If your strategic interests outweigh your morals, then your morals are questionable (or weak).

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Following up on who profits from the new oil flows away from the West and off to India especially and China for cheap oil.

image

Who wants some cheap oil around here these days?

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Here’s an update on the Russia shares and ADRs and how US and other foreign people can try to buy these stocks or at least convert the ADRs you probably owned from the US or UK to Russian shares which you may be able to sell.

In short, it worked for a while but now doesn’t, due to financial intermediaries in the West not supporting their part of the process. Here’s some of his commentary on Russian stocks as investments generally:

There is no denying that Western sanctions have had a significant negative effect on Russia, and especially on ordinary Russian citizens, as laid out in this 14 June 2022 article by The Times : “Russia’s economy buckles as Western sanctions start to bite”. However, this is not a situation where the collective West can exert quite the level of global influence than previously, as much of the rest of the world is now working overtime to reduce this influence even further.

5. Russian stocks are “cheap”

By conventional measures, Russian stocks are extraordinarily cheap.

In fact, price/earnings ratios of 2-4 and EV/EBITDA multiples of 1-2 are so cheap that many argue the worst-case scenario has already been priced in. Some Russian stocks trade with a p/e ratio of less than 1. You can buy Lukoil at a p/e of 2 with a 35% dividend yield. These figures include recent updates to earnings estimates.

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Leaked call between Putin and France’s Macron

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/russia-responds-after-vladimir-putin-call-with-emmanuel-macron-leaked/news-story/fae311ba4a435991da05e4a65744fd14

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“I don’t know what jurist will be able to tell you that in a sovereign country, the texts of laws are proposed by separatist groups and not by the democratically elected authorities,” Macron replied.

Putin, now enraged, shot back: “This is not a democratically elected government. They came to power in a coup, there were people burned alive, it was a bloodbath and Zelensky is one of those responsible.”

The day after the call, Russia recognised the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic. Three days after that, Russia invaded Ukraine.

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bump