Investment impact of Russia Ukraine crisis

Sanctioning ourselves, as China and India step up buying of cheap energy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-06/china-and-india-funnel-24-billion-to-putin-with-energy-spree

backup link

Russia has pocketed $24 billion from selling energy to China and India in just three months following its invasion of Ukraine, showing how higher global prices are limiting efforts by the US and Europe to punish President Vladimir Putin.

China spent $18.9 billion on Russian oil, gas and coal in the three months to the end of May, almost double the amount a year earlier, latest customs data show. Meanwhile, India shelled out $5.1 billion in the same period, more than five times the value of a year ago. That’s an extra $13 billion in revenue from both countries compared to the same months in 2021.

Meanwhile, in a show of North American solidarity, Canada decided helping out Germany for their gas / energy situation was more important than our sanctions.

backup link

The Nord Stream 1 pipeline supplies Germany with much of its Russian gas. Canada had blocked the delivery of a gas turbine used in the pipeline, which was being repaired by German manufacturer Siemens Energy at its plant in Montreal, because of its sanctions on the Russian energy sector. Moscow blamed this delay for its decision last month to cut the flow of gas through the pipeline by 60 per cent, sending gas prices soaring.

Germany has triggered the second stage of its emergency gas plan, including firing up old coal-fired power stations and asking households to limit consumption.

The recent surge in prices has forced utility Uniper, Germany’s largest buyer of Russian gas, to ask for a multibillion-euro bailout from Berlin that is likely to result in the government taking a stake in the company.

And of course they may not get the gas anyway…

FRENCH FINANCE MINISTER LE MAIRE SAYS SAYS A RUSSIAN GAS CUTOFF IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO

1 Like

Sri Lanka went bankrupt, the peaceful protestors are swimming in the President’s pool, and burned down the prime ministers house. The ex-President fled offshore and some new guy has the unenviable job of trying to pick up the pieces.

Here’s a good recap of their many issues, brought to a head by the food and fuel price inflation from our Russian sanctions and their impacts on the global markets.

In particular, they tried “green” farming, without or with much reduced fertilizer use (made from natural gas elsewhere) and this was a disaster. Crop yields crashed, they couldn’t make enough to feed themselves, and they couldn’t make enough cash crops to get hard currencies to buy imports they needed from abroad.

Maybe the Dutch farmers are onto something opposing the New World Order over there.

3 Likes

The all-organic farming was introduced by the Sri Lankan government last year because the country didn’t have enough hard currency to purchase fertilizer. Sri Lanka has been broke for awhile, thanks to corruption and mismanagement. BTW, when the people took over the president’s home, they found bank notes worth millions of rupees. The country has been looted for years.

1 Like

quick retrospective of some of our war hawk politicians 5 years ago planning the war with Russia. 1min clip.

2 Likes

daily military updates on the war, focusing on specific battles and local military tactics. Here’s the one from yesterday.

Not as unbiased as the comments would make you think. Relies heavily on Russian government-provided “information.” And the second half (predictions of near future moves) is pure speculation.

1 Like

Thank you Merriam-Webster. :slight_smile:

I suspect it is no less or more biased than the similar “news” coming out of Ukraine. They both, sadly, have eliminated all news sources except “govt. approved” ones.

1 Like

Peace talks at least being considered

  • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER RUDENKO: WE RESPOND POSITIVELY TO KYIV’S READINESS TO RESUME NEGOTIATIONS, BUT INSIST ON CLEAR ANSWER TO OUR PROPOSALS ON UKRAINE’S NON-ALIGNED STATUS -IFAX

  • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER RUDENKO: FUTURE AGREEMENT WITH UKRAINE MUST FIX ITS NON-ALIGNED AND NON-NUCLEAR STATUS AND RECOGNISE EXISTING TERRITORIAL REALITIES, INCLUDING CURRENT STATUS OF CRIMEA, ‘DPR’, AND ‘LPR’ -IFAX

on the EU side, Germany economy is running out of gas, literally, let alone building supplies for winter heating.

  • *GERMAN GAS STORAGE LEVELS DECLINE AS STORAGE IS BEING WITHDRAWN

  • GERMAN ENERGY REGULATOR BUNDESNETZAGENTUR: AT PRESENT GAS IS BEING PARTIALLY WITHDRAWN FROM STORAGE AS A RESULT OF MARKET CONDITIONS

  • GERMAN ENERGY REGULATOR BUNDESNETZAGENTUR: GERMANY’S OVERALL GAS STORAGE LEVEL AT 64.5% VS 64.6% REPORTED DAY BEFORE

  • GERMAN ENERGY REGULATOR BUNDESNETZAGENTUR: THIS DEVELOPMENT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO REACH THE NECESSARY STORAGE LEVELS FOR WINTER

  • GERMAN ENERGY REGULATOR BUNDESNETZAGENTUR: ALSO REDUCES GAS RESERVES IN CASE OF SHORTAGE

French realism

  • FRANCE’S MACRON: IT’S PROBABLE RUSSIA WILL RESTRICT GAS SUPPLIES TO EUROPE

  • FRANCE’S MACRON: WE NEED TO MOBILIZE AND PREPARE

  • FRANCE’S MACRON: WE’LL NEED CONSUMERS AND BUSINESSES TO RESTRAIN THEIR ENERGY CONSUMPTION

EU folds on the blockade by Lithuania of an isolated part of Russia.

Meanwhile, the US war hawks remain committed

  • BIDEN SAYS PUTIN’S WAR MUST BE A STRATEGIC FAILURE
1 Like

Gas, what gas? Must be technical difficulties.

1 Like

I’ll post this as separate topic too. It is not just the Ukraine Russia war driving that is driving the spectacular returns in trend-following funds.

1 Like

Pakistan gets an IMF bailout, avoids Sri Lanka’ fate for now.

Pakistan government loses key elections after raising gasoline prices . Pakistani politics were thrown into fresh turmoil Sunday when the new government lost a series of by-elections after imposing price rises on the population to secure a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

The government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, concerned the country could face a default…raised taxes and removed a subsidy on gasoline to meet the terms of the IMF bailout. That move nearly doubled the price of gasoline for consumers.

1 Like

Russia sounds like they’re planning on taking more.

  • RUSSIA’S LAVROV: GEOGRAPHICAL OBJECTIVES OF ‘SPECIAL OPERATION’ IN UKRAINE HAVE CHANGED FROM JUST DPR AND LNR TO A NUMBER OF OTHER TERRITORIES - RIA

  • RUSSIA’S LAVROV: IF WEST DELIVERS LONG-RANGE WEAPONS TO KYIV, GEOGRAPHICAL OBJECTIVES IN UKRAINE WILL BE ADVANCED EVEN FURTHER

Meanwhile, Biden keeps up the aggression, no end in sight

  • U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY AUSTIN SAYS NEXT WEAPONS PACKAGE TO UKRAINE WILL INCLUDE FOUR MORE HIMARS

  • RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV ON PROSPECT OF PEACE TALKS WITH KYIV: IT MAKES NO SENSE IN CURRENT SITUATION -RIA

Uh, what are you talking about? Biden is keeping up the spending. He has no aggression accept for Conservatives, unborn babies, and border agents. His largesse, at our expense is in support of …

Headlines, not going well for Germany or Ukraine

  • RUSSIA PLANS ANNEXATION VOTES IN UKRAINE REGIONS BY SEPT. 15

  • UKRAINE’S CENTRAL BANK DEVALUES HRYVNIA VS USD BY 25%

  • GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER TO GIVE PRESS STATEMENT THIS AFTERNOON ON NORD STREAM 1 AND GAS SITUATION

  • UNIPER: GAS DELIVERIES FROM RUSSIA ON JULY 21 AT 40% OF NOMINATED VOLUMES

Meanwhile, US lawlessness remains popular in our elected officials as they contemplate seizing Russian individuals assets for sale and gifting to Ukraine.

1 Like

Cooperating with Russia on food, grain exports.

1 Like

US escalation continues

  • WHITE HOUSE SPOKESPERSON KIRBY: U.S. DEFENSE DEPT TO ANNOUNCE UKRAINE WILL GET UP TO 580 PHOENIX GHOST UAVS

  • BIDEN AUTHORIZES SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN TO DIRECT THE DRAWDOWN OF UP TO $175 MLN IN DEFENSE AID FOR UKRAINE -WHITE HOUSE

  • WHITE HOUSE SPOKESPERSON KIRBY: TOTAL U.S. SECURITY ASSISTANCE FOR UKRAINE COMES TO $8.2 BLN

Those are drone/bombs, some of our newer tech compared to what we had been giving them before. Meanwhile, our Secretary of War is looking into giving fighter jets to Ukraine.

1 Like

bump

Russian gas deliveries to Germany continue to be cut

Meanwhile, the deal to export some grain out of Odessa, which sounded like it had agreement on all sides, was disrupted by Russian missile strikes on the city (possibly aiming for delivery of more of those rocket systems we’ve been sending over).

“Russia made no commitments under the grain deal that prevent it from continuing the special military operation and destroying military infrastructure” - Foreign Minister Lavrov

1 Like

Ukraine defaults on its debt, economically bankrupt

  • Ukraine’s Naftogaz Says Default to Occur After Missed Payment
  • NAFTOGAZ DIDN’T RECEIVE GOVERNMENT CONSENT TO MAKE DEBT PAYMENT

And morally bankrupt too

Them calling people like Rand Paul (oversight on our Ukraine spending) or Tulsi Gabbard (nuclear war risks) Russian disinformationists is pretty rich from the guys who were making up Russian rapes.

2 Likes

Putin helping the world’s climate crisis by getting the EU off those dirty fossil fuels.

  • PHYSICAL FLOWS THROUGH NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE FALL TO 17.4 MLN KWH/H FOR 0800-0900 CET ON WEDNESDAY
  • GAZPROM’S DEPUTY CEO MARKELOV: CURRENTLY, ONLY ONE GAS PROCESSING UNIT IS WORKING AT PORTOVAYA COMPRESSOR STATION AT NORD STREAM 1 GAS PIPELINE

  • GAZPROM’S DEPUTY CEO MARKELOV: SIEMENS IS NOT WORKING TO SOLVE PROBLEMS

  • European Natural Gas Prices Hit Fresh Record High

  • Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures Jump 12% to EUR228/MWh

  • European Natural Gas Prices Hit Fresh Record High

  • BRENT CRUDE OIL RISES $1 A BARREL

  • KREMLIN: GAZPROM IS SUPPLYING AS MUCH GAS TO EUROPE AS POSSIBLE

  • KREMLIN: ITS POSITIVE THAT EUROPEANS HAVE UNDERSTOOD HOW ESSENTIAL THE KALININGRAD TRANSIT QUESTION IS FOR RUSSIA

Unrelated I’m sure

  • GERMANY APPROVES SALE OF 100 HOWITZERS TO UKRAINE - SPIEGEL
  • BUDGET FOR 100 HOWITZERS COMES TO 1.7 BLN EUROS - SPIEGEL, CITING SPOKESPERSON OF MANUFACTURER KMW
  • KMW HAS ALREADY STARTED BUILDING THE HOWITZERS, DELIVERY DATE FOR FIRST HOWITZERS STILL OPEN - SPIEGEL

Meanwhile, where is that gas going? East.

  • CHINA’S NATIONAL ENERGY ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: EXPECTS ENERGY CONSUMPTION GROWTH TO ACCELERATE IN H2

  • DIRECTOR OF CHINA’S NATIONAL ENERGY ADMINISTRATION: EXPECTS NATURAL GAS STORAGE CAPACITY TO DOUBLE BY END-2025 FROM 2021

Grain still looking like it will get sold

  • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER RUDENKO: GRAIN DEAL COULD COLLAPSE IF OBSTACLES TO RUSSIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ARE NOT PROMPTLY REMOVED -IFAX
  • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER RUDENKO: GRAIN SHIPMENTS FROM UKRAINE TO START SOON -IFAX
1 Like