Investment impact of Russia Ukraine crisis

With all of the money he’s getting from us, I don’t blame him. Even if he’s kicking back 10% to the big guy, and raking 5 - 7% on his own, there’s still lots of money to pay off cronies and buy product to kill Russians.

Commentary on the declining EU will to support the war as they fall into recession


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I didn’t read the whole article, but wonder, also, if the rats [brave Frenchmen (oxymoron), if you prefer] who were opposing Brexit are now cheering Brexit, or will they go down with the ship?

A dangerous situation he says -

Maybe he should tell his Ukrainian forces to stop trying to blow up their nuclear reactor?

  • LOCAL AUTHORITIES SAY UKRAINIAN MISSILE STRIKE HIT A ROOF OF A FUEL DEPOT AT ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN UKRAINE - RIA

Only the threat of nuclear contamination of the rest of the EU (under prevailing winds) will keep the arms flowing? It’s a chance he’s willing to take.

  • ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA NOT READY TO HOLD PEACE NEGOTIATIONS
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Isn’t RIA a Russian news organization?

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Yes, the Russians are controlling the nuclear plant.

Meanwhile, on the fossil fuel front, an update on how sanctioning ourselves, and especially Europe, is doing.

Sales are booming in Russia’s export market, the world’s largest in crude and refined fuels. And new trade arrangements have given Mr. Putin cover to use natural gas exports as an economic weapon against Ukraine’s European allies. Before the war, Russia supplied Europe with 40% of its gas. It has since throttled flows through the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany and other conduits, driving prices higher and putting pressure on European households and businesses.

Oil revenue more than makes up the difference. “Russia is swimming in cash,” said Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Finance. Moscow earned $97 billion from oil and gas sales through July this year, about $74 billion of that from oil, she said.

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Time to send more money to Raytheon and Boring.

The U.S. has during the past six months supplied Ukraine with 16 U.S. rocket launchers, known as Himars, thousands of guns, drones, missiles and other equipment. Much of that, including ammunition, has come directly from U.S. inventory, depleting stockpiles intended for unexpected threats, defense officials say.

In the U.S., it takes 13 to 18 months from the time orders are placed for munitions to be manufactured, according to an industry official. Replenishing stockpiles of more sophisticated weaponry such as missiles and drones can take much longer.

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No gas for you

  • KREMLIN ON UPCOMING THREE-DAY MAINTENANCE AT NORD STREAM GAS PIPELINE: NOTHING HINDERS RUSSIAN GAS EXPORTS BESIDES TECHNICAL PROBLEMS FROM SANCTIONS

  • KREMLIN: WESTERN SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA ARE PREVENTING MAINTENANCE AND RETURN OF EQUIPMENT TO PLACE OF WORK

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bump

Follow up with the details on the Ukrainian assassination.

According to the Russian police, a 42-year-old woman named Natalya Vovk, who also uses the surname Shaban, reportedly a member of the Ukrainian National Guard’s Azov Battalion, departed Ukraine on July 23rd in a vehicle with false Donbas plates, the region currently under Russian control. She drove into Russia together with her 12 year-old daughter Sophia Shaban as cover, changed the plates to those of Kremlin ally Kazakhstan, and then proceeded to rent an apartment in the building in Moscow where Darya lived. According to one report, Darya would often drive her father to meetings as he did not like to drive, but in this case, he switched to another car. Vovk, who may have had an accomplice who helped her obtain a fake Kazakh passport and may have aided in constructing the bomb, planted the device under the Dugin car and detonated it by remote control before fleeing to Estonia after again changing her car license plates to Ukrainian. It is to be presumed that Vovk was on a mission planned and authorized by Ukrainian intelligence (SBU).

Gas shut off entirely for Nord 1, while Russian firms make record profits and declare huge dividends (which might not make it to trapped Western shareholders, thanks to our governments).

GAZPROM PAO - GAZPROM SUSPENDED GAS SUPPLIES TO FRANCE’S ENGIE DUE TO FAILURE TO PAY FOR JULY SUPPLIES IN FULL

  • GERMAN NETWORK REGULATOR CHIEF TO REUTERS TV ON NORD STREAM GAS FLOW STOP: WE CANNOT TECHNICALLY UNDERSTAND THE NEW MAINTENANCE BY RUSSIA

  • GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK: WOULD REJECT IDEA OF “CAPPING” ENERGY PRICES

  • GERMANY’S SCHOLZ: ENERGY PRICE PREMIUM WILL REACH CITIZENS IN SEPTEMBER

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Russian bonds trading well, a 400-500% return from the Western investors’ forced liquidation lows of $0.10, now back to $0.45-0.50 of face value. Buyers appear to be non-Western investors who are confident in getting paid.

Russian sovereign bonds have staged a comeback this summer as investment banks have warmed up to trading the Kremlin’s debt again and investors outside the grip of Western sanctions on Moscow are buying bonds.

The run-up in prices reflects how Russia has maintained investor confidence in some pockets of the world and appears to be managing its economy amid the war with Ukraine. Some government bonds that were marked as low as 8 cents on the dollar in June rallied as high as 50 cents on the dollar this month and now trade at around 45 cents, according to credit analytics provider Advantage Data Inc.

Investors who aren’t restricted by sanctions may also be encouraged by the recent strength of Russian fiscal policy. Sales of oil and gas have bolstered the Kremlin’s finances, helping the government’s tax receipts grow in the first half of 2022 by 32% compared with last year

According to the Russian police,

Say no more. :stuck_out_tongue:

EDIT: not that it really matters in this case, whether it was some “secret agent” from Ukraine, a local resistance group, or Putin. Just pointing out that you’re taking the word of an organization that would be under extreme pressure to fabricate a story that doesn’t make themselves targets for liquidation due to their failing to stop the attack. Perverse incentives abound when it comes to this sort of thing in an authoritarian regime.

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The article said he, let alone his daughter, were not under police protection and so were easier targets. I’m not sure why the Russian security people would feel responsible (as long as it wasn’t them that blew him up!).

The article said he, let alone his daughter, were not under police protection…

Assuming you trust the source…

And yes, it’s kind of obvious what source you trust. Thankfully for you, the media is also on your side. I’m not saying what’s the right/wrong side, but can we accept the fact that each side is going to lie to put themselves in the best light, and will always have excuses for why they’ve done something wrong?

While you may think some here are pro-Russian/anti-Ukrainian, would you at least consider the fact that your opinion may be swayed by the massive pro-Ukrainian/anti-Russian media?

While I oppose Russia’s invasion, I understand the argument they are using. I would be much more anti-Russsia if their opponent were more honest. As it stands, they both look bad, with Russia looking worse. My Ukrainian barber said much the same during my last shave and haircut. I was actually shocked at how anti-Zelensky he sounded. He still has immediate relatives in Ukraine who will not leave for reasons that he couldn’t fathom, but that I wholeheartedly understand and agree with.

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Defenestration is a real risk to prominent Russians.

Lukoil PJSC Chairman Ravil Maganov died after falling from a window in a Moscow hospital, according to Russian media reports.

Maganov died by suicide, Tass news agency said Thursday, citing an unidentified law enforcement official with knowledge of the matter. The 67-year old was in a hospital after a heart attack and was also taking antidepressant drugs, according to the report. Law enforcement officials are working on the scene, according to Interfax.Maganov joined Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest oil producer, shortly after the company was founded and was in charge of the company’s upstream business. Thanks to his “managerial talent, Lukoil evolved from a small oil production group to one of the world’s leading energy companies,” the oil producer said in an emailed statement. He had been suffering from a “severe illness,” it said.

In recent years, the executive had participated in regular meetings at the Russian Energy Ministry alongside other oil companies, discussing the nation’s position on production levels ahead of OPEC+ meetings. He was appointed chairman in 2020.

Lukoil was the only Russian oil producer to call for a “fast resolution of the military conflict” in Ukraine early March, just after Moscow’s invasion of its neighbor entered its second week. Vagit Alekperov, the company’s founder, chief executive officer and also a major shareholder, announced his resignation in April after being targeted by international sanctions.

Perhaps if they were sending a message to followers of Aleksandr Dugin, he might have met a similar fate instead of a misguided car bombing.

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How did Mr. Maganov displease Putin?

Defenestration is a real risk to prominent Russians.

Duh?

Russians being in the news for falling to their death from windows is probably the only reason the average person has ever heard the term “defenestration” in the first place.

It’s certainly more common that other high profile methods of Russian assassination like novichok on doornobs, or pulonium in tea or wasabi – or of course the ever infamous suicide by shooting oneself in the back of the head twice.

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Well the Czechs had a go of it long before the Russian accidents back in the 1400-1600s, but I try to get my real education from comics -

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