Investment impact of Russia Ukraine crisis

Talking about sending our/EU troops to fight Russia, largely denounced by EU leaders.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/27/europe/france-macron-troops-ukraine-intl/index.html

  • UK PM SUNAK’S SPOKESMAN: BRITAIN HAS NO PLANS FOR LARGE-SCALE DEPLOYMENT OF TROOPS TO UKRAINE.
  • GERMAN DEFENCE MINISTER PISTORIUS: I RULE OUT SENDING GERMAN TROOPS TO UKRAINE, BOOTS ON THE GROUND IS NOT AN OPTION
  • GERMANY’S SCHOLZ: THERE WILL BE NO GROUND TROOPS ON UKRAINIAN TERRITORY SENT BY NATO
  • SPAIN’S GOVT SPOX: SPAIN DOESN’T AGREE ON SENDING EUROPEAN TROOPS TO UKRAINE
  • US ‘WILL NOT SEND TROOPS TO FIGHT IN UKRAINE:’ WHITE HOUSE
  • RUSSIA’S DEFENCE MINISTRY CONFIRMS FIRST ABRAMS TANK DESTROYED IN UKRAINE

meanwhile, in the ‘rule of law’ department, US Treasury eyes confiscation

  • YELLEN SEES “STRONG’ CASE FOR UNLOCKING VALUE OF RUSSIAN ASSETS
  • BIDEN: NEED TO FUND UKRAINE, SITUATION IS DIRE
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So what?

It’d be a shame if we didn’t.

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Hey why not? Not like Russia abides by international law (or even their own national ones but that’s another story). Russia seized assets of multinational companies established in Russia. They use fleets of shadow tankers to get around oil/gas embargos. It’s not like these assets were ethically or legally obtained. So we might as well help ourselves. As freedom fighters, let’s just call it the liberation of these assets from their oppressing masters. :wink:

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Germany was considering blowing up the bridge to Crimea, mad its plans for such aggression got leaked. Call mentions US and UK military already “on the ground” operating in Ukraine as civilians.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/germany-accuses-russia-of-information-war-after-military-recording/ar-BB1jgjkh

  • KREMLIN: A RECORDING OF THE GERMAN MILITARY DISCUSSION SHOWS A DIRECT INVOLVEMENT OF THE WEST IN THE UKRAINE CONFLICT.
  • RUSSIA’S MEDVEDEV SAYS SITUATION BETWEEN US AND RUSSIA NOW IS WORSE THAN THE 1962 CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS
  • RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY: DENAZIFICATION OF GERMANY HAS NOT YET BEEN COMPLETED
  • MEDVEDEV SAYS RUSSIA WILL PROSECUTE ITS ‘SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION’ IN UKRAINE UNTIL THE OTHER SIDE CAPITULATES
  • MEDVEDEV: RUSSIA WILL EVENTUALLY WIN THE SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION AND MAKE THE NEO-NAZIS SURRENDER
  • RUSSIA’S MEDVEDEV SAYS IT’S NOT POSSIBLE TO RESURRECT THE USSR BUT THAT ‘HISTORICAL PARTS’ OF RUSSIA SHOULD ‘RETURN HOME’

Commentary

The mere fact that this telephone conversation was intercepted and has now been published raises questions.

Firstly, no one knows whether this is an isolated case or whether the Russian secret services can intercept entire sections of German or even NATO communications.*

It is further explained that 50 or even 100 Taurus would be delivered, but that these would have no influence on the course of the war.* The question arises as to why this is even being considered – the answer is clear: marketing and politics and the absolute will to escalate.

The officers assume that between 10 and 20 Taurus cruise missiles would be needed to destroy the Crimean Bridge, as the bridge is massive and difficult to destroy. The fixation on destroying this bridge between the Russian mainland and Crimea seems almost like a mania, as the Russians are building a connection via the land bridge from Mariupol, which is a safer alternative to the Crimean Bridge.

Many parts of the conversation revolve around efforts to support the Ukrainians directly – including people on the ground – and thus to play a direct role in attacks on Russia. They are looking for solutions and “tricks” to prevent this from appearing to be the case.

It is clear from the conversation that the Americans and British are already fully, directly and locally involved in the war in Ukraine

This leak is a complete disaster for the German government. It shows hesitation, incompetence and dishonesty.

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Reports from the retreat and loss of that city recently. Outnumbered and outgunned.

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Speculation around the US’s top Ukrainian diplomat electing to “retire” just as the war seems to be going particularly poorly for the US side.

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bump

Yes we Hate Russia, but please stop jacking up world oil and gasoline prices with your reckless drone attacks. Zelenskyy not listening.

https://archive.is/nN6Bh

  • RUSSIA CRUDE REFINING DROPS TO A 10-MONTH LOW ON UKRAINE ATTACKS.

White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity.

There have been at least 12 attacks on major Russian refineries since 2022, and at least nine this year, along with several terminals, depots and storage facilities, according to a military intelligence official in Kyiv.

And there it is

The US objections come as Biden faces a tough re-election battle this year with petrol prices on the rise, increasing almost 15 per cent this year to around $3.50 a gallon.

“Nothing terrifies a sitting American president more than a surge in pump prices during an election year,” said Bob McNally, president of consultancy Rapidan Energy and a former White House energy adviser.

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Uhh…, Ukraine is fighting for their existence and you are worried about how much it costs to fill your gas tank? How about asking OPEC to pump more oil? In the meantime, my VDE is going gangbusters.

I was speaking as the US government there, not as me personally, per the article’s coverage of U.S. diplomatic unhappiness. Thankfully neither the war nor gas prices impact me personally much.

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Should have said they are worried.

I don’t know if this is a good idea because some other disfavored country like Israel might be next.

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I approve of grabbing whatever the EU can from Russia. Should have done so right from the beginning.

Besides, according to Putin, Ukraine really belongs to Russia so sending these funds to Ukraine is basically the same as sending them back to Russia. EU’s only choosing which part of Russia to send the funds back to. No big deal.

I don’t think Israel is anywhere near the status of Russia for the EU. Israel’s not really threatening the safety of the EU like Russia is.

That aside I wonder which court would arbitrate this issue between the EU and Russia if it went to a court. The ICJ?

I have not seen any massive demonstrations against Russia in Europe. Have you?

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The Wall Street Journal reports US$ exchange rates in every issue, including with Russia until the past few months. The listing for Russia has not been shown for several months and I wonder why.

Yeah, they stopped reporting it mid Feb, not sure why.

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/fx/USDRUB/historical-prices

Lots of other places still report it, for example Yahoo

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A group of gunman shot up a Russian theater and killed over 100 people. They were caught trying to flee to Ukraine. ISIS, the Islamic nut jobs who haven’t been in the news lately, claimed responsibility.

Now comes the blame game

  • RUSSIA’S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESWOMAN ON ATTACK ON CONCERT HALL: IT’S EXTREMELY HARD TO BELIEVE THAT ISIS HAS CAPABILITY TO LAUNCH SUCH AN ATTACK
  • RUSSIAN INVESTIGATORS SAY ATTACKERS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CASH AND CRYPTOCURRENCY FROM UKRAINE
  • WHITE HOUSE: IT IS CLEAR ISIS IS SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ATTACK IN MOSCOW
  • WHITE HOUSE: WE DO NOT ENCOURAGE OR ENABLE UKRAINE TO STRIKE INSIDE RUSSIA
  • RUSSIA’S FSB CHIEF: US, BRITAIN AND UKRAINE ARE BEHIND MOSCOW CONCERT HALL ATTACK

and more escalation in the war

  • RUSSIA USED AERIAL BOMBS FOR ATTACK ON KHARKIV, FIRST TIME SINCE 2022
  • FRENCH DEFENSE MINISTER: MIGHT REQUISITION PRODUCTION CAPACITIES TO SPEED UP ARMS PRODUCTION, IN PARTICULAR FOR SUPPORTING UKRAINE
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Russian capabilities allegedly used against various U.S. diplomats and spies, among others, both in Ukraine and before.

One plausible cause for these symptoms, the report states, is microwave energy. Another is ultrasound, a high-frequency form of inaudible acoustic energy that can enter the body through the ear canal or other aspects of the head, causing potential disruption of the central nervous system — especially of the inner ear, where sound and balance are sensed. Both microwave and ultrasound energy can damage cells in the brain as well as open the blood-brain barrier, causing proteins from the damaged cells to leak into the spinal fluid and then into the bloodstream. These so-called biomarkers are metabolized by the body within hours to days, meaning that someone hit with an acoustic weapon would need to have their blood drawn almost immediately after an attack to detect this kind of evidence of injury.

A consensus has formed among the growing community of AHI sufferers that the U.S. government — and the CIA in particular — is hiding the full extent of what it knows about the source of Havana Syndrome. The victims offer two general hypotheses as to why. The first is that releasing the full intelligence around Russian involvement might be so shocking as to convince the American people and their representatives that Moscow has committed an act of war against the United States, thereby raising thorny questions as to how a nuclear power fond of showing off its hypersonic missiles ought to be made to pay. The second is that acknowledging Havana Syndrome is caused by a foreign adversary could put a damper on recruitment to the CIA and State Department. After all, how many Americans would be willing to serve their country overseas in the full knowledge that their next load of laundry or morning jaunt to the embassy could result in permanent physical and mental ailments?

Of course it could just be US intelligence agency propaganda to gin up more Ukraine war money.

CBS News, The Insider, and Der Spiegel released the findings of their joint investigation on Sunday blaming Russia for “Havana Syndrome”, which refers to the mysterious ear and head pain that over 1,500 US Government (USG) staffers across the world claim to have experienced since 2016. It appeared timed to coincide with Congress’ plans to vote on Ukraine aid sometime later this month, with the intent obviously being to scare lawmakers into approving more funds for America’s proxy war on Russia .

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Despite the neonazi currents of antisemitism in various countries, there was also a lot of goodwill in Europe for the plight of Jews exterminated during WWII. Even though Israel was created mostly unilaterally, they also got sympathy for resisting early attacks from the Arab world.

But the sentiment shifted in recent years with their ultra-conservative government policies and especially their settlement expansion policy and where that leaves the Palestinians who lived on the land prior to the establishment of Israel. You can see the sentiment shift even since October. Initially public opinion was behind Israel almost 100% after HAMAS’ attack on civilians but over time the asymmetry of the Israeli response got many people to reconsider their support. That’s when the public opinion got out of step with UK government support for Israel.

But that’s different with Russia. It’s been a perennial aggressor/threat in Europe for decades (outside of the brief glasnost/perestroika years maybe). Nobody is taking Russia’s side in the Ukraine invasion. So not much to demonstrate against if the population is in step with the government foreign policy on how to handle Russia.

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I do not agree with your characterization of the Hamas Israel war, but the basic point of our disagreement is whether the EU would appropriate Israel funds and use them to arm Hamas if they have the opportunity. I think there’s no question that they would, if Israel were foolish enough to give them control of some of their funds. As a small example, see this latest move by leftist UK lawyers to sever the relationship with Israel. They claim that selling weapons to Israel would make the UK complicit in genocide.

In an open letter to Sunak published late Wednesday, the lawyers and judges said the U.K. could be complicit in “grave breaches of international law” if it continues to ship weapons.

Signatories, including former Supreme Court President Brenda Hale, said Britain is legally obliged to heed the International Court of Justice’s conclusion that there is a “plausible risk of genocide” in Gaza.

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There is quite a gap between appropriating (not just freezing mind you) another country’s assets and stopping selling weapons to them. I can understand UK public being concerned about supplying weapons that will later be used to kill aid workers…