Lest anyone get the wrong idea, I believe the prospects for WWIII are poor. However:
Unlike during the last (roughly) thirty years I believe there is now a non-zero likelihood of such a war. Some triggering elements are in place:
- a maniacal dude is at the Russian helm
- America and the west are openly supplying his opponents
- and he is pissed
I don’t think Biden would strike first. Putin, and then Xi, I dunno. At least for Putin we are a real PITA. Those of us who are older remember how things were with the Soviet Union before Reagan. And unfortunately so does Putin. Our recollections are not fond. Putin’s are . . . . big time. And that’s a problem.
I would put WWIII probability somewhere south of 0.1. I wish it were lower still.