Recession Thread

Recession talk (see above) is coming from both sides of the political aisle.

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I can almost hear Uncle Joe’s response (if allowed to respond). I imagine it would sound something like Jim Mora’s response to a playoff question after a resounding loss to the ?San Francisco Foreigners?

81% of Americans Think a Recession Will Hit This Year. Here’s How to Prepare for One

If you’re among the 19%:

Don’t worry. Be happy!!


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Good Lawdy, Miss Clawdy! The Nasdaq is concerned about the “little guy” (not be confused with kickbacks to the “big guy”)!

I’m so impressed with Nasdaq’s concern and humanitarianism. Let’s look at their concerned suggestions:

Oh, I’ve removed their ad/referral links … so sad.

  1. For one thing, make sure you have a solid emergency fund. At a minimum, you should have enough cash in your savings account to cover three months of essential bills.

Way to go, Nasdaq. Why is it only 3 months? I was taught that the minimum is 6 months. Anyone else think that 3 months is acceptable, ESPECIALLY when you’re talking about recession prep?

  1. (I don’t want to keep editing their referral links, so I’ll short form it.) Get rid of cc or high interest debt. A novel idea, apparently to Nasdaq.

  2. My all time favorite - get a second job. Thank you, Mr. Top Hat. Would you like to upgrade Park Place to hotels?

While I begrudgingly/sarcastically/$&^# allow that Nasdaq has done their minimum community service, can we please expect/demand/peacefully protest for more?

This is a false flag operation to lower inflation expectations, which fuel actual inflation, without having to raise interest rates too much.


Excluding the 2-month long recession due to COVID shutdown in April 2020, we haven’t had one since 2007. 15 years would be by far the longest period in history without a recession.

So from an historical perspective, economists are not really taking a huge gamble announcing one especially considering the current headwinds of supply chain disruption and war-induced energy crisis.

Better question for me would be how long will it be? Short ones can be 6-12 months, longest ones almost 4 years. That makes a huge difference in financial planning IMO.


I’m currently sitting on a 50 year emergency fund. And at times I still wonder if even that is good enough…


Is that “50 years” inflation- and life-expectancy- adjusted? :grimacing:

Yikes! You’re skewing the age demographic markedly … or think more of yourself/medicine/luck than I do.

I at least thought it was. Which is what’s prompted my current wondering. :slight_smile:

Goldman: 35% chance of recession in upcoming two years

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Good article on the history of the Fed trying to control inflation, with or without recessions. Possible but not likely to avoid one.

Can’t argue with facts. :laughing:

While I don’t disagree with the prediction, as lame as it is (so there’s a 65% chance that we keep increasing GDP (HA!)), I disagree with their road sign.

The road sign for a recession should be a windmill, to indicate that the winds come and go, so the economy may soon be out of power. :slight_smile:

It’s late. The artistic side of my brain is taking over.

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Et tu, Fannie?

Sadly, yes:

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And sadly, Fannie doesn’t give a rat’s rear end. Why, you ask? As stated in the first four words of the “article”, they’re a “government-supported mortgage giant”. They’ll make they’re money, and possibly hit their bonuses regardless of the economy, or how many people default on their mortgages.

While economists still largely expect the U.S. to skirt an outright recession, risks are rising.

Goldman Sachs sees about a 35% chance of negative growth a year from now. In a forecast that is an outlier on Wall Street, Deutsche Bank sees the chance of a “significant recession” hitting the economy in late 2023 and early 2024, the result of a Fed that will have tighten much more to tamp down inflation than forecasters currently anticipate.

I didn’t know whether to post this here on the recession thread, or instead over on the stagflation thread. Hmmmm. I guess time will tell.

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For GDP context. Russia’s economy may be losing the war, but ours is too.

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Updated with Q2’22