# Tesla Raffle Finito

Win a Tesla! Build your own Tesla (up to \$195,000 value includes taxes).

Second prize of \$10,000
Third Prize of \$5000

Maximum 4000 tickets sold at \$250 each.

https://carbonraffle.org/#we-have-your-back

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Obviously some profit is built in for whoever is running the raffle. But you could buy tickets equal to the full \$200k prize value, and still have less than a 25% chance of winning anything. Thatâ€™s ridiculously bad value, and very profitable for the organizer.

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Itâ€™s a non-profit, the value proposition is that youâ€™re funding the organization not that you get a decent expected return on your ticket.

That raises a good point though. For the money youâ€™re giving away, isnâ€™t it better to make a deductible charitable contribution than to participate in a raffle?

I think itâ€™d be better for your money to simply donate rather than do a raffle if your marginal tax rate is higher than the after-tax expected value of the raffle.

Here assuming all tickets are sold which seems likely or close enough for expected value calculation, after-tax expected value is (best scenario) \$5k/4000 + \$10k/3999 + \$137k/3998 = \$38. 38/250 = 15.2%. So if your marginal tax rate is 22% or above and youâ€™re itemizing, youâ€™re statistically better off just donating money to that charitable organization and taking the deduction than participating in the raffle (where you cannot take the deduction).

I canâ€™t argue with your logic. Before doing either, you should check out their 990. They donâ€™t have enough revenue to be rated by Charity Navigator.

CXCâ€™s mission â€śis to provide research, education, and advocacy to move us towards a low-carbon economy through market-based mechanismsâ€ť

I didnâ€™t win.

I didnâ€™t mean to imply they were a charity. Theyâ€™re supposed to be non-profit, and file a 990. They fall below Charity Navigatorâ€™s income minimums to be rated, but they are listed.

Thereâ€™s always next year.

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