gtk that 538 is left leaning now. I like Nate’s raw analysis better. Tipping-point state - Wikipedia
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Speaking if Nate’s forecasts
—-
@NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
August 23
Harris: 53.5%
Trump: 46.1%
September 6
Trump: 61.5%
Harris: 38.3%
——
Swing States: chance of winning
Pennsylvania - 
Trump 62-38%
Michigan - Trump 52-48%
Wisconsin - Trump 52-48%
Arizona - Trump 75-25%
North Carolina - Trump 74-26%
Georgia - Trump 67-33%
Nevada - Trump 59-41%
——
@Polymarket odds
Trump: 53%
Harris: 45%
Polymarket swing states odds
https://polymarket.com/elections
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wow! I think GOP policy might win the day over personality. Libs have this problem:
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This is catastrophic for Harris. She should have seen a substantial bounce after the convention. Alas, it wasn’t the case.
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Stupid Republicans just dont get it. Poor people are just as deserving of posh vacations as rich people. 32 charges in Hawaii out of billions of EBT spending only indicates that travel to Hawaii needs to be subsidized to make access more equitable for everyone.
(Obviously I’m being sarcastic, but would anyone be surprised to see this argument actually be made?)
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The actual felon in the political spotlight is taking his lumps, while maintaining his innocence until a pardon can be arranged.
For the second time in three months, Hunter Biden was convicted of federal charges after he unexpectedly copped to dodging $1.4 million in taxes Thursday, the day jury selection was supposed to begin in the case.
The budding artist, who was found guilty on felony gun raps in June, entered the shock plea to all nine charges against him in order to avoid yet another embarrassing trial that would’ve centered on his penchant for strippers, pornography, luxury hotels and exotic cars.
LA prosecutors had said they planned to introduce evidence that Biden blew cash on strippers and porn — all while avoiding paying taxes from 2016 through 2019.
Biden lawyer Abbe Lowell blindsided the feds early Thursday morning when he told Judge Mark Scarsi that the Biden scion intended on entering an Alford plea — a little-known technicality that would’ve allowed him to plead guilty but maintain his innocence.
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Meanwhile, the bogus NY business records case has been delayed until after the election, presumably to be dropped if he wins or pushed though as a punishment for losing. We shall see.
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Kamala 2019 had strong views on issues, like ending ICE and having the taxpayer fund gender surgeries for illegals and prisoners.
Kamala 2024 has no positions and refuses to comment (except for popular Trump ones which she then copies).
It’s more news honestly that CNN is willing to cover this, than that Kamala is a far left nut job when it comes to her policies. I guess this is their way of saying for her “to get back to the center if you want to get elected.”
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Just watched the debate. I was wrong, she didn’t tear him a new one each time she spoke, but almost each time, especially in the second half. It was the show I expected it to be 
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Kamala’s policies are a copy & paste of Biden’s, literally. Including the “let’s re-elect Joe Biden” parts, until people noticed and called them out. Is she surrounding herself with people who are lazy, stupid, or both?
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Debate was pretty uninspired, with Kamala being more canned and sticking to her rehearsed speech points and Trump meandering and more off topic. Recap -
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Just watched the debate. I was wrong, she didn’t tear him a new one each time she spoke, but almost each time, especially in the second half. It was the show I expected it to be
The parts where she wasn’t tearing him a new one were when he was choosing to moon the audience and go full “goatse man” all on his own…
In the aftermath, I particularly enjoy the ridiculous narrative of “3 against 1”. Completely divorced from reality.
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I’m glad they fact-checked him a few times. I mean, there are lies, more lies, and statistics, but then there are just plain blatant lies that shouldn’t go unchecked. There hasn’t been enough of that.
I did not get the impression that the moderators favored either side, and I was consciously looking for it. The questions criticized (indirectly, simply by being asked) both candidates for different things. They tried to get a direct answer from Trump more times than Harris, but that’s only because Trump was rambling on tangents or redirecting every time instead of answering the question.
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I wonder if she’ll get a bounce out of this? If not I’ll join the Fed Paw Patrol to protect our pets (hope it pays better than dog catcher!)
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Some post-debate humor along those lines
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Free speech on the ballot, and Brazil as a warning for what happens when leftists control the government and don’t like criticism.
I will bring back free speech in America… I will sign an executive order banning any federal employee from colluding to limit speech, and we will fire every federal bureaucrat who is engaged in domestic censorship under the Harris regime.
The recent news out of Brazil, where a judge has banned X, officially for not appointing a business representative but in effect for not doing enough to restrict speech, serves as a reminder of how bad the modern left tends to be on censorship.
And on the US left, vs the Brazilian one above
leftist censorship is a machine, supported by armies of bureaucrats, judges, journalists, intellectuals, and lawyers. We’ve even seen the emergence of an entire academic discipline centered around the need to censor. When a Democratic president attacks speech that liberal elites do not like, supposedly objective reporters will either ignore the story or portray it in the light most favorable to the authorities. Major civil liberties organizations like the ACLU will at worst support their actions or at best express concern but not prioritize pushing back on them. Government bureaucrats will all assume that those being censored or the companies resisting the White House are bad people with something to hide, and find a thousand ways to make their life more difficult.
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Could not resist
See the video at the link
This May Be the Sweetest Thing You See Today: Little Liam Gets a Special Letter From Trump
Once upon a time, before the media decided to turn former President Donald Trump into the next Hitler, the evil orange man who was going to destroy democracy, they used to report favorably on him. They recognized some of the good things that he did.
But he’s still doing those things, whether they recognize it or not.
Take the letter he sent to Liam, a little, eight-year-old New York boy with a rare brain disorder and growth hormone deficiency. Trump found out Liam was a fan so he sent him a letter wishing him a happy birthday and sending his support. Warning, this may make you cry:
Dear Liam,
Happy 8th birthday. Mrs. Trump and I hope you enjoy this special occasion surrounded by the love of your family and friends. We are so encouraged by the strength and determination you have shown throughout your young life, and send our love and best wishes to you as you continue to fight. Remember, you are never alone and we are keeping you in our thoughts and prayers for continued care and good health.
May God bless you and your family. Stay strong.
Sincerely,
Donald Trump
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Remember the debate fact check when the moderators told us Trump was wrong about rising crime under Biden and not to believe our lying eyes? They cited FBI reported crime stats, which are increasingly biased as nearly 30% of jurisdictions, most notably large democrat run cities with high crime, declined to report anything and hence were assumed to have no crime in the stats….
In contrast, the victim reported crime stats just came out of the DOJ, who I guess didn’t get the memo to massage the data, and showed a 50%+ rise in rapes, robberies, and assaults under the Biden regime’s kinder, gentler approach to criminals.
The FBI statistics included murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault under violent crimes — but was far from a complete picture, as only 72% of the law enforcement population participated in the report.
The annual National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) showed…The rate of rape increased from 1.2 per 1,000 in 2020 to 1.7 in 2023, while robbery went from 1.6 per 1,000 in 2020 to 2.6 per 1,000 in 2023, and aggravated assault rose from 2.9 per 1,000 in 2020 to 4.5 per 1,000 in 2023.
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It’s impossible for all those illegals to vote they said, until OR just admitted their DMV registered a bunch and sent them mail in ballots.
“While this error is regrettable, the secretary and the Elections Division stand by automatic voter registration and its many benefits,” Griffin-Valade added.
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Not enough diversity and pet eating in your neighborhood? Maybe Kamala will fix that.
Biden woke up from a nap to tell us to stop being racist, not to tell them to follow the law. Which isn’t surprising really, either Biden being soft on crime or Haitians coming from a violent failed state being a bit more violent, criminal and bad drivers than the average American.
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/10/jd-vance-trump-conspiracy-haitian-immigrants-cats
Biden admin condemns “dangerous” conspiracy about Haitian immigrants
Meanwhile, they found cats being grilled on video in a nearby OH town, but not yet hard proof in Springfield. Another conspiracy fact strikes.
And killing people in hit and runs without taking US driving tests either it turns out
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