DJT up 30% in after hours as poll results look strong - 10-20pt lead in GE, won FL by a lot including Miami-Dade, etc. betting markets for each state:
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All hail DJT. Curious why Lake etc are losing though?
Other networks have not called it (yet)
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Looking like a clean sweep - Trump, Senate (both for sure), House maybe 90%, majority of the popular vote, etc. the leftist news hasnât called it yet, but with PA and super strong showings everywhere, I think itâs a done deal (99% on the betting sites).
Itâs all over but the shouting.
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My understanding is that at least NPR, and possibly the rest, are waiting for AP (your chart above), which already called 267 and hasnât called Alaska for some reason, which would be enough to get to 270 even without the uncalled swing states.
The popular vote is surprising to me, but itâs better that way if actually true. The west coast still has millions of uncounted ballots, but doesnât look like enough to cross the popular vote line.
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AP called it now.
https://apnews.com/live/trump-harris-election-updates-11-5-2024
Trump is already making things great again. Overnight we have -
stock market +2.5%
Bitcoin +7%
DJT stock +30% (was +50% earlier, around $50 premkt)
Tesla stock +15%
US government credit risk dropping by 1/4 or so
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This i think was a decent recap of the election and how/why it played out the way it did.
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The guy who bet $30M on Trump and pushed the betting markets won about $50M. He had a better polling technique that found more reliable answers from people who were reluctant to answer the poll - very clever and well done.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d
In dozens of emails, Théo said his wager was essentially a bet against the accuracy of polling data. Describing himself as a wealthy Frenchman who had previously worked as a trader for several banks, he told the Journal that he began applying his mathematical know-how to analyze U.S. polls over the summer.
In messages sent privately to a reporter before Election Day, Théo predicted that Trump would take 49% or 50% of all votes cast in the U.S., beating Harris. He also predicted that Trump would win six of the seven battleground states.
ThĂ©o repeatedly criticized U.S. opinion polls. He was particularly critical of polls conducted by mainstream-media outlets that, in his view, were biased toward Democrats and tended to produce outlier poll results that favored Harris. âIn France this is different!! The pollster credibility is more important: they want to be as close as possible to the actual results. Culture is different on this,â
Polls failed to account for the âshy Trump voter effect,â ThĂ©o said. Either Trump backers were reluctant to tell pollsters that they supported the former president, or they didnât want to participate in polls, ThĂ©o wrote. To solve this problem, ThĂ©o argued that pollsters should use what are known as neighbor polls that ask respondents which candidates they expect their neighbors to support. The idea is that people might not want to reveal their own preferences, but will indirectly reveal them when asked to guess who their neighbors plan to vote for.
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Market commentary on the election reaction
Almost every sector joined the upward move, barring defensive areas that wilted under pressure from rising yields. Stocks that performed best tended to be ones closely tied to potential U.S. economic power that could potentially be unleashed with less regulation and a more protectionist stance. These included big banks, steel and automakers, railroads, heavy equipment makers, and travel firms like air and cruise lines.
Post-election enthusiasm didnât extend to fixed income. Yields, which move the opposite direction of Treasury notes, set new four-month highs on worries that Trumpâs tariff and tax agenda could spark inflation. The U.S. dollar also ascended amid ideas that interest rates could remain higher for longer if Trumpâs policies get enacted and the Federal Reserve decides to play defense.
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Sounds right to me. Itâs important to remember that most economists expect Trumpâs proposals, if implemented, to make inflation, debt and deficit worse than what theyâd be under the Democratsâ proposals. People who voted for him said that a bad economy was the most important issue in this election, and thatâs only because heâs been lying to them about it.
Trumpâs proposals are similar to his policies in his first term This is the inflation rate for the last 24 years. Every year of the first Trump term from 2016 to 2020 had lower inflation than any year of the Biden Harris administration from 2021-2024.
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You donât seem to understand or acknowledge that inflation is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. Most of the recent inflation was caused by the COVID-related money printing and supply chain disruptions. The first money printing (CARES Act) was approved by Trump, though it was bipartisan, so I wouldnât blame him. Just like I wouldnât blame him for the pandemic-triggered supply chain disruptions that happened under his watch.
This is probably the biggest reason Trump won â quite a lot of his supporters look at the chart you provided without understanding what actually caused it.
Also my statement was about the future policy. Democrats werenât planning to print as much money as Trump is planning. And they werenât planning on increasing tariffs, which will most likely lead to higher prices and contribute to higher inflation (than it would be without the increased tariffs). This is why the quote xerty posted above says:
They may keep the rates higher for longer because inflationary pressure is likely to be higher.
Also no, his proposals are not similar, theyâre more extreme. He did add some tariffs, but now he promised to add much more. I also donât remember him promising or performing mass deportations. There were way more deportations under Biden than under Trump. But âmassâ deportations in the millions that he promised, if realized, are bad for the economy. When you kick out a worker with nobody to replace him, we have fewer things produced and less economic activity. This needs to be done slowly and carefully, which isnât something heâs capable of, IMO.
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So we can kick out all the illegal non workers and criminals, got it
On the subject of rates, the market still thinks the Fed will keep cutting 1/4 point this week and later this year, so while potentially higher inflation may result from inflationary policies like tariffs, esp if they arenât balanced by offsetting tax cuts with the proceeds, itâs also possible that we have stagflation from lower interest rates and medium inflation. Thatâs good for paying off our debt, but not so good for savers or bonds.
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While itâs only one aspect, I do agree with you on this point. Itâs the same as with gas prices - they like to cite the low prices with Trump, but ignore how theyâre starting the comparison with the COVID time period where traders literally couldnt give away excess oil supply because demand suddenly fell off a cliff.
But in the big picture, it is only one factor. Also, dont forget Trump pulled from the Demâs playbook - thereâs no way many of his plans will ever come to be. He took Democrat ideals and trumped them up even more, to close voters who were on the fence. I dont see any big spending packages like the Democrats love to put out.
He doesnt need to be. Heâs going to say heâs kicked out more than ever regardless of what has actually happens. His people are going to be more pragmatic in executing those orders. The same problems as last term only start when those underlings openly question, and even defy, his orders, rather than say âyes sir!â then quietly âdo their bestâ without calling out the hyperbole.
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Hopefully this will be the end of identity politics.
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Your Arguments are unconvincing. They consist of bald faced assertions with no evidence. No, I do not understand or acknowledge that inflation is a lagging indicator. Show me evidence. I quoted hard data that although somewhat cooked by the BLS are fairly objective. Those numbers show that Trumpâs policies led to far less inflation than Biden-Harrisâs.
Here are some more hard numbers, the stock market loves the Trump win. Make of them what you will regarding inflation, they do not predict hard economic times
Notice that I provide evidence for my statement. If you are going to make persuasive arguments, I suggest you do the same
I really donât think itâll be the same this time. Heâs better prepared and surrounded by âyes-menâ who are just as rash as he is. Heâs got a playbook now to fire people and shutter institutions that donât follow his command.
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I think the real answer is not that he was liked more, but that some of the people who voted for Biden 4 years ago did not show up at all.
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