Whither bonds? .

Technically correct. However, would he like to see JPM’s debt rating downgraded?

While true, no one but Trump has ever tried to get those “other countries” to pay for dependence on us and our military. Consequently, those other countries will continue to live on our largesse without paying a price and will continue to have high credit ratings.

ETA: I always considered Dimon to be a semi-straight shooter with the facts. I’m shocked that the linked article did not have a high number of comments on unsustainable debt. Maybe Jamie’s only kicking back 5% (instead of the normal 10%). :smile:

2 Likes

Wall street is aTwitter about treasury rates.

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/08/16/ten-year-treasury-yield-hits-15-year-high-as-market-comes-out-of-denial-grapples-with-higher-for-longer-tsunami-of-issuance-qt/

Ten-Year Treasury Yield Hits 15-Year High, Market Wades out of Denial, Sees “Higher-for-Longer,” Tsunami of Issuance, QT

The 10-year yield closed at 4.28% today, according to Treasury Department data, the highest since, well, let’s look here, November 14, 2007, so about 15 years ago, having edged past November 2022 and June 2008 by a hair. 2007 is notable in that it was the last year before the arrival of QE.

At 1230 EST 10 year rate was 4.33%

2 Likes

In a related development

2 Likes

More on treasury bond rates. Of course predictions don’t cost anything. But it seems that the consensus is that the yield curve will normalize by the long end interest coming up.

United States 10 Years Bond - Forecast).

The United States 10 Years Government Bond Yield is expected to be 5.169% by the end of December 2023.

It would mean an increase of 82.9 bp, if compared to last quotation (4.34%, last update 22 Aug 2023 14:15 GMT+0).

The expected yield, by March 2024, is 5.332% (+99.2 bp vs last quotation)

A farther forecast of the yield, for September 2024, is 6.19% (+185 bp vs last quotation)

2 Likes

Well, you’ve discovered my secret weakness. :laughing:

I’ll prognosticate a little … with the following disclaimer … I’m not a financial advisor, nor a licensed attorney, specifically for illegal immigrants. I am also not a financial advisor to anyone but my immediate family, and the only recourse available to someone that is not in my immediate family is to pound sand. :frowning:

To be absolutely clear, I don’t read, think, write, understand English. Consequently, don’t pay any attention to me.

My best guess (about as good as anti-virus software, and probably better than anti-covid masks) … I prognosticate / expect their 2023_12 10-year yield prediction to be very high. There is a lot of room for crawfishing, so no bets with @scripta, but I bet 2023_12 rates to be < 4.6%.

Since that is about 8 weeks pre-election, and the big guy has a variety of weapons/contractual agreements :laughing:, I’m reticent (Ha!) to make commitments. Since you said there is no cost involved, I’ll keep matriculating down the field to an end result of 5.6% in October of 2024 … no offense to Hank Stram or Lenny Dawson.

1 Like

Money :dollar: wise?? Is it @Honkinggoose or @scripta predictions?

2024, I have a few CD’s maturities early in the year. Probably several of us are in the same boat. Watching the market!

My guess is the Fed and the markets are coming around to the view that rates will be “higher for longer” to combat persistent inflation. So I would expect longer term rates, say the 5-10 year treasuries, to slowly rise as currently the market prices higher rates only for the shorter term and then a return to previously “normal” lower rates in the future.

As for your CDs, I would stay on the shorter end of maturities if you believe this, since higher rates would become available for say 5-7 year term CDs later on when the market rates have risen.

just my $0.02 worth

3 Likes

Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.

1 Like

Go Yogi!

1 Like

Did @scripta make any predictions in this thread, or delete them, or were you finishing a large glass of California grape juice? :smile:

I didn’t. Your @ mention of me in prior post must’ve confused patty.

The only prediction I recall making (probably in other threads) is an eventual collapse of the Florida real estate market precipitated by rising sea levels and insurance.

1 Like

Predictions about the future are difficult. But I’ve got a feeling that oil/gas drilling in the USA (Oklahoma) particularly is happening.

Those folks who have been on fragile site for years know that I have owned property in Oklahoma for decades. One of my small acreages is paying off. I received my first oil royalty checks last month and yesterday I received a second one. Amazing things happen. :slightly_smiling_face:

4 Likes

Niiiice :money_mouth_face:

For the humor impaired … /sarcasm mode on

What? Huh? You mean that you’re getting oil royalties? What about all of those solar royalties? I think they include Bidenomics tax credits, but you must kick back 10% to the Big Guy. All of OK that I’ve been to is flat and sunny. Why not shut down the oil wells and put up solar collectors? You owe it to the planet, animals, puppies, kids, orphans, alphabetters, liberals. Then they may not peacefully demonstrate at your farm … unless you earn more than minimum wage.

As a bonus, you get to keep all of the eagles/hawks and condors (along with vultures) that get blinded and crash on your property. :smile:

/off

OK is tornado country, ain’t it? Prolly better to get that wind power instead of solar. /snarcasm

1 Like

Yeah, oil royalties! Finally kicked through :wink:. And yes, the “big guy” takes his share right off the top.

The checks show
Royalty. Deductions. Withholding.
Pmt Amount

1 Like

Yeah, OK is tornado :tornado: country. Head for the bathtub :pleading_face:.

I’m not worried about the weather right now. Keep the oil flowing!

3 Likes

Not mentioned in all the articles about this is the trillion dollar deficits the Democrats are racking up. We can hope for a good old-fashioned government shut down when Congress comes back in session in September and tries to pass appropriations bills. Watch out for the Christmas time omnibus spending bill.

3 Likes

Is it too much to ask for not injecting right-wing weirdness into every freaking thread?? It’s beyond tiresome at this point.

3 Likes

My apologies. I forget that people read this other than regular posters. Rather than editing/deleting my previous post, please consider the following as my non “right-wing weirdness” response:
Congratulations!

1 Like