Tesla Model 3: Pre-order to Ownership Discussion

I definitely learned my lesson shorting Tesla last year. I’m not touching it with a 10 foot pole anymore. I have found there are too many people like you out there that read news stories like this and somehow think that Tesla is doing great. I can’t explain it.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/stock-market-news/articles/2018-01-02/tesla-inc-tsla-stock

There are 2 main reasons why it’s hard to short Tesla is that there are more than 400K demand for Model 3 and no serious competition until 2019. As long as Tesla shows progression on Model 3, I see Tesla easily gain 20% by end of 2018 from the current price of $320. To be honest, going against Tesla is like going against Apple. These two stocks always a buy if you see 10% sale.

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If you try to price Tesla using traditional valuation methods, you’re going get some poor results. It’s like trying to price Amazon in the early 2000’s thinking that it’s just a bookstore. The Tesla story has always been about the future and more specifically the technology behind the batteries. The car story is nice but there’s no way a car company that delivers less than 100k cars a year is worth more than Ford, a company that sells more than 20 times that.

The technology behind the batteries and the future it represents is what investors are paying a premium for. It’s also something that’s very difficult to short against.

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A highly profitable car company that only sells 100k volume can be worth more than a high volume but low/no profit car company.

Can’t value Tesla as solely as an auto manufacturer. Tesla’s battery/storage technology will contribute significantly to their revenue as it becomes more affordable for mainstream to have it in their garage.

And later on if Tesla decides to monetize their supercharging stations by opening to non-Tesla vehicles, watch out! Tesla will be the next Exxon of EV energy suppliers. There’s lot of potential for Tesla to make money besides manufacturing cars.

That is ridiculous… get a new Model S and walk away. I have a reservation for a Model 3 and I am on the fence about it from what my initial assumptions were and from the reviews that I have seen.

The biggest problem that I see… rear-wheel drive. It was a mistake. I mean, it isn’t a dragster, it doesn’t have ludicrous speed… make it front-wheel drive and behave like the segment it is competing. Plus, rear-wheel drive only reduces regenerative braking. They should either have made it front-wheel, or make AWD standard (which would not help the price point). I was thinking about getting this vehicle for my wife (I don’t drive enough to justify any vehicle based on cost savings) as she has a 60 miles round-trip for work and free charging at work… so we wouldn’t be paying to charge, in most circumstances making “fueling” free of cost and then the lower maintenance. We would nearly break even in TCO over our current ICE (diesel, so very efficient already) vehicle when you factor in fuel and maintenance. Then, we would be ahead after the initial period. My plan would be for this to be a 15+ years vehicle… the only difficult part being patience and desire for another newer vehicle.

I mentioned it numerous times because the 3 is smaller than the S, and people wanted to hate on my comments, but the 3 has nearly zero rear seat leg room. Everyone thought that the interior space would be the same and all of the losses would be in truck space… not true. The 3 has rear leg room like my Jetta, and the S has rear leg room like my Passat. Doesn’t matter to folks that don’t have kids… lots of people have kids (or even have adult passengers).

I am leaning towards a used Model S… unless I can start getting some serious self-employment income and write off the heavily weighted Model X and just buy a new one of those (very unlikely).

While they are ahead of other EV maker. Their storage tech is no further ahead as far I can see. The biggest problem is integration into the grid and it’s not as easy as all the news stories portrays. This problem will be resolved but not by any manufacture alone.

Totally agree but right now this is a highly unprofitable company with low volume. The point again is that traditional valuation methods do not work for a company like Tesla. It can’t be valued as a car company because it fails in every aspect. It’s like valuing Amazon as a bookstore back in the 2000’s because there was nothing else to compare it against.

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Model S is nice. But I still want Model 3. If AWD version comes out before $7,500 tax credit ends, I will definitely jump on it.

My problem with it is that even after all upgrades (AWD, extended range, premium package), you’re still left with a vehicle that has low rear leg room, lower shoulder space (fine for my wife, but not for me), the awkward dash situation (reviews have shown that there is too much interaction with the central tablet for things like cruise control, very different than the Model S), and low cargo space. I think it is a good move, certainly, but the price point still seems too high for what it is. I paid $30K for a new Passat TDI SE that got ~50mpg (now about ~45mpg) on the longer commutes and even better on long trips. It has space similar to the Model S and is fairly low cost to fuel. The maintenance isn’t horrible aside from the transmission fluid that is changed every 40K miles at around $400/pop ($225 if I decided to do it myself). It uses synthetic oil which is about $50, but I only have to change it every 10K miles.

The attraction for an electric car for me is the very low maintenance and low (and potentially free) “fueling”. But if I have to make too many compromises to get there, I don’t think that I will be doing it for a while. I may see if I can transfer my deposit to a Powerwall; that will allow me to shift to demand based power and save me a bit of money every month, prepare me for some solar, and power my house in the event of a power loss for a while (better value than getting a generator).

Maybe I will still get a Model S, but it will likely be used. I am supposed to do a test drive here in the next couple of weeks of both a 3 and an S, so I will have some first-hand knowledge at that point and it will allow me to make a better decision.

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Great points, but there’s another reason I think a lot of people buy electric (At least in CA): Carpool stickers.

I haven’t seen a lot of reporting on this, but as of Jan 1, 2019 all alternate vehicle carpool stickers in CA will expire, and new ones will only be valid for 4 years total. So anyone who bought a Model S in 2016 or earlier will have no carpool access.

I’m torn as to whether this will prop up EV market in CA or not. As people find this out they could just dump their cars and go gas, or buy new EV. Maybe its a wash, but it certainly will decimate the used EV market. I was real close to buying a used EV but Carpool on a cheap used EV car was the thing I was looking at.

Now I’ll be considering a lease since after the lease is over I’d need to re-lease if I want carpool.

Saw my first model 3 on the freeway today. Car struck me as nicer looking in person than in pictures. The front which I had not liked in photos presents much better in person.

The car is much smaller than I thought it would be, looked to be roughly the same size as a toyota carolla.

For anyone on the waiting list for a model 3, what was the main factor in choosing to give Tesla an interest free loan for an undermined period of time vs. buying a Chevy Bolt and having a cheap EV with decent range now?

These are the 2 main reasons I’m waiting for a model 3 over the Chevy Bolt:

  • Continuous improvements in Autopilot
  • Superchargers

It’s all about experience and supporting a company that is revolutionizing the EV market. I feel like I am being one of frontiers helping Tesla compete with snobbish auto giants. What has GM done beside build an ugly, EV care that lacks innovation and wow factor? If I am going to spend some money on my first EV car, I want something that is going to give me better experience than my current ICE car and don’t have to worry about lack of supercharging stations. Has GM built any nationwide supercharging stations? If I buy Bolt now and 6 months later I see a friend’s Model 3, will I envy him? Definitely. Buying something because it’s cheap does not mean it’s a better decision. I am paying for an experience that I can enjoy. If I buy GM Bolt and can’t even get excited about the interior or exterior design, what’s the purpose? Even if I popped few Viagra pills, I don’t think I will get any excitement from driving Bolt. Design and quality matter to most Tesla Model 3 future owners. Bolt should not even be considered in the same class as Model 3 base version. Model 3 offers so much more technology and better user experience than Bolt. It’s worth every minute of the wait.

Now that many owners have posted reviews on their Model 3, I have no doubt Tesla has succeeded on Model 3.

Wow, that’s some strong cool-aid.

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Like what?

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Haha…are you serious? Maybe it’s time for you to climb out of your hole and visit the nearest Tesla showroom. Ask your local Tesla representative to explain Tesla technology if you don’'t know the difference from Bolt. They will give you a long list. But the one that is important is the battery. Model 3 can charge 130 miles in 30 minutes while Bolt can only charge 90 miles.But if that’s too hard to understand, look at Bolt’s advanced car remote. It looks same as GM car made in the 90s.

Here is nice video for your curiosity.
Tesla Model 3 Review

Haven’t driven Model S, 3, or X yet? You must be Tesla virgin. Time to pop your cherry. Go test drive one! :wink:

Yeah I am serious.

I’m not trolling you, I want real discussion here.

I don’t personally care about battery vs. IC, I think the volt or a hydrogen fuel cell car like a Marai make more sense. Reful for 450 miles in a IC or 250 in a H Fuel Cell in about 5 minutes.

I don’t have 30 minutes to wait around to get 90/130/250/500 miles.

Also, and again I’m not trolling, but by the time a Model 3 is being made in large enough numbers that I can walk in and buy one the Bolt’s replacement will probably be shipping, so I won’t waste my time going in to see one. There’s a significant difference between shipping 30,000 cars in 2017 and shipping 500.

And neither car can drive itself. I’m personally going to be buying IC or leasing something/anything to get carpool until I can get a car that drives me. Then I’l buy whatever that is, no matter how ugly. I’ll be sleeping while it drives me anyway, I don’t care how ugly it looks.

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