Bender, didn’t you talk about wanting to live in Colorado or somewhere else sometime ago?
Go for it… You’ll never have a better chance… 
1 Like
So you can’t claim unemployment?
As @Pattyb53 mentioned, this is your perfect time to relocate to where you want to be. The job is no longer locking you your current locale.
No. Yes, I should have quit last year instead. /shrug
1 Like
2021 Q3, total returns
| ticker | type | 2021 Q3 |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | bitcoin | +25% |
| CPI | inflation | +2% |
| QQQ | tech | +1% |
| JNK | junk bonds | +1% |
| SPY | large caps | +1% |
| BND | bonds | +0% |
| USD | cash | +0% |
| EFA | foreign (developed) | -1% |
| GLD | gold | -1% |
| IWM | small caps | -4% |
| EEM | foreign (emerging) | -9% |
Turns out it was a pretty boring quarter, but if you’re not going all in on crypto, you did well to avoid losses and being up more than a little was a win. It was a good quarter over here for stock trading, but I’m not trying to compete with the crypto bulls.
For reference, even tho Q2 was a big loss for crypto (followed by this quarter’s smaller recovery), Bitcoin is still up about 50% YTD.
All that said, it’s worth mentioning that implicitly benchmarking this list to USD +0% might not be exactly what you want. Here’s the inflation numbers YTD, running annually about 5% (about 1.7% for Q3), so all the real returns are solidly negative ex crypto.
US Inflation Rate (annualized monthly rate I think)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf (recent month CPI changes)
I don’t wade into this thread much in the same way that a guy who always bets on black right before red hits shouldn’t hang out on roulette forums, but since I did just make a short term play, I figured I’d post here.
Bought 400 shares on 10/12 @ $24.50 when I thought it was as low as it would go (HA!). Since it went even lower today on the “good news” that only 293,000 people filed for unemployment, I bought another 360 shares at $23.32.
For the past 6 months, VXX has jumped up on the 18th, 19th, or 20th of the month. Hoping to unload next week for a quick payday. If it doesn’t jump next week, I’ll just hold until the next time something stupid happens and volatility jumps again.
Trump’s media / brand / social media venture is going to have its own stock and go public via a SPAC merger. It already got a Yuuge reception with the stock up 50% and the traded warrants up 10x. Took a few DWACW’s as a flier that a lotta Brandon fans putting a little of their money into this could easily create a GameStop type situation.
Here’s their website that Google isn’t making it easy to find. Good political move too - mainstream media will have a harder time censoring discussion of a hot moving stock.
Bump for the updated charts above, but even those don’t show the full move. The common is $70 and the warrants $20+ in the after hours. This was a good description of the situation -
My guess is that the price of Trump SPAC stock will not, for instance, be much affected by its earnings announcements, unless Trump himself does the earnings calls in which case it will go up no matter what he says. My guess is that the stock will not be particularly correlated with the stocks of other media or technology companies. My guess is that the stock will go up when Trump is on television, or if he announces that he’s running for president again. My guess is that if something bad happens to Trump — if he’s sued or arrested or banned by a new tech company or some new scandal comes out — then that will also make the stock go up, to own the libs or whatever. My guess is that each day that goes by without Trump news, the stock will go down a bit. My guess is that the stock is essentially a bet on Trump’s personal newsiness, on Trump-news volatility.
TSLA on Musk’s latest Twitter and why he’ll be selling some of his stock soon,
1 Like
My plan I posted about on Oct 14 was looking dumb and dumber as time went on with VXX going all the way below $20 the first week of November. Until today.
I wasn’t looking at the market at all today, saw xerty’s post in the other thread and checked. Fortunately or unfortunately (we’ll see what the future holds), I couldn’t close out my position with that nice little profit because the markets closed early today. We’ll see what happens Monday. Might close out all the way, or might ride it out a little longer if things still look bleak. As of right now, I’m just happy to be above water again on a risk I took that was looking like a bad move with probably too much of my money out there than I should be playing with.
2 Likes
I was jealous of your possible genius, as I had purchased some sqqq and spxu call LEAPS that have been withering as the stonks kept going up. I’m still in the red, but a lot less so than on Thursday. Congrats on your backtesting and/or foresight. I only went on a gut feeling … which right not feels kinda queasy. 
Looks like the market rebound today wiped out my profit, but I’m much closer to even now. I can’t complain because only a few days ago I was figuring I’d be taking a $2,000+ loss. I sold half my position so far today. Haven’t made a decision yet on when I’m getting rid of the other half. Curious to see what happens.
1 Like
I’m out completely. I can’t do a screenshot of realized gains until tomorrow, but I think in the end I’m up ~$300 on my VXX play. Not great, but considering where it was headed just one week ago, I’m happy to be out even. Would have been nice to get out at the peak, but that rarely ever happens. Not sure where things are headed, but I’m not interested in the rollercoaster right now. Don’t have the stomach for it at the moment. Considering a long term position in a few cryptos, but haven’t made up my mind yet.
1 Like
There’s the added savings of not buying Tums. 
I’m still underwater on one of my options and the other two are good to 2023. I’ll wait awhile longer … and buy baking soda instead of Tums.
2021 annual total returns
| ticker | type | 2021 Close |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | bitcoin | +58% |
| SPY | large caps | +29% |
| QQQ | tech | +27% |
| IWM | small caps | +15% |
| EFA | foreign (developed) | +11% |
| CPI | inflation | +7% |
| JNK | junk bonds | +4% |
| USD | cash | +0% |
| BND | bonds | -2% |
| GLD | gold | -4% |
| EEM | foreign (emerging) | -4% |
Like the Red Queen says, "here we must run as fast as we can, just to stay in place. And if you wish to go anywhere you must run twice as fast as that.” Keeping up with the near 7% inflation for 2021 required taking higher risks in either stocks or crypto. For example, a 50/50 world stock (VT, not shown but +18%) and US bond portfolio would have returned an average of 8%, eking out just over a +1% gain compared to inflation, although no doubt a loss on an after-tax basis. A 50/50 SPY and US bond portfolio would have made 12-13%, a 5% gain over inflation and enough that even after taxes you’d be ahead by a bit.
Another great year for the crypto hodlers, with big gains again. On the individual stock front, 2021 was exceptional in the volatility around Gamestop and AMC associated with social media fueled collective buying sprees that dismayed short sellers and brought riches by way of triple digit returns to the Apes who managed to get in early, sell at a good time, or both. GME was up over 800%.
Coming off the rebound from the covid crash in many of my holdings, at least though the start of the year, I ended up doing quite well. A little leverage works a lot better in an up market than a down one like 2020, that’s for sure.
3 Likes
A fun recap of what themes worked well this year, from Hindsight Capital.
1 Like
Old school advice
1 Like
Bump. So hopefully Xerty will tell me if I should sell my stock holdings before the crash happens…
2 Likes
In some metaverse, Meta stock was up 20% on great earnings. In the real world, FB is -20% and counting.
after the close Wednesday, Meta (FKA Facebook) tanked over 22% on missed earnings and cited that challenges are ahead in the first quarter. Inflation, supply chain disruptions at advertisers and users shifting to products that “monetize at lower rates” are among the key issues the company faces. Revenue in the first quarter will be between $27 billion and $29 billion, while analysts were looking for that number to top $30 billion.
1 Like
2022 Q1, total returns. All that glitters…
| ticker | type | 2022 Q1 |
|---|---|---|
| GLD | gold | +7% |
| CPI | inflation (est) | +3% |
| USD | cash | +0% |
| BTC | bitcoin | -4% |
| JNK | junk bonds | -5% |
| SPY | large caps | -5% |
| BND | bonds | -6% |
| PFF | preferreds | -7% |
| EFA | foreign (developed) | -7% |
| IWM | small caps | -8% |
| EEM | foreign (emerging) | -8% |
| QQQ | tech | -9% |
is gold, and everything else turns to lead. For inflation, I estimated for Q1 since we get the last, very likely much higher reading, in 2 more weeks. Jan and Feb were running at around 10-12% annualized rates, so don’t let the single quarter 2-3% CPI number lead you into a false sense of security.
I had a somewhat unlucky first quarter, with some hedges that didn’t work well as well as an unfortunately timed short squeeze, so I was happy to be doing reasonably well and still solidly positive if not topping these charts. Looking forward, I’m wondering why I don’t have more cheap oil and coal company stocks / futures / options…
1 Like
Bought some TWTR today on the news of Elon’s 9% stake. It would be hard to be run worse than it is now, and he’s a great stock promoter. Average around $50.
update 4/5: up more this am on the news that Elon will get a board seat, although he agrees not to buy more than 15% as long as he keeps it. They’re acting friendly for now.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312522095651/d342257d8k.htm
1 Like