CPI on deck for Wednesday this week. Longer term expectations for inflation have fallen with the market, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fairly high rate for last month continue similar to recent ones.
NY Fed: June Three-Year-Ahead Expected Inflation at 3.6% From May 3.9%
NY Fed: June Five-Year-Ahead Expected Inflation at 2.8%% From May 2.9%
NY Fed: June One-Year-Ahead Expected Inflation at Record 6.8% From May 6.6% – WSJ
MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. CONSUMERS SAY THEIR HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL SITUATION DETERIORATED FROM A YEAR AGO AND NEARLY HALF EXPECT IT TO WORSEN IN THE YEAR AHEAD, BOTH UP FROM MAY - NY FED
Please bear in mind this is from a liberal source, Newsweek, friendly to Biden:
If true, not good for us or for inflation here. If Biden thinks he can go to Saudi with a human rights message for MBS and win acceptance or concessions, well . . . . . . good luck with that!! It hain’t gonna happen.
I don’t recall a Saudi anti-American, pro-Russian stance when Trump was POTUS. Heck, Kushner darn near had 'em willing to hold hands with Israel for goodness sake!! Seems like now there is a 180 degree turnaround since Trump lost.
EXPECT NEW CPI DATA TO BE HIGHLY ELEVATED : WHITE HOUSE
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the report to show consumer prices rose 8.8% in June from a year earlier, which would be a fresh 40-year high following an 8.6% reading in May.
Oil prices down on these news items today, only $100/barrel.
OPEC Oil Output Rose 234,000 B/D in June to 28.72M B/D, Cartel Says Citing Secondary Sources
OPEC Oil Output From Members With Quotas Stood at 24.81M B/D, 1.06M B/D Behind Quotas
Global GDP Growth to Slow to 3.2% in 2023, From 3.5% in 2022, OPEC Says
Meanwhile, on the Fed side, rate hikes are likely to keep coming in on the high side of expected.
“The tremendous momentum in the economy to me suggests that we can move at 75 basis points at the next meeting and not see a lot of protracted damage to the broader economy." - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
Overall annual inflation rose to 8.6% in May, while core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, hit 6%, according to the Labor Department’s consumer-price index. The June figures are set to be released Wednesday.
Housing inflation is important because it represents around two-fifths of core CPI and one-sixth of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index.
housing costs are represented in government inflation data by two main components, one that attempts to capture the monthly costs for people who rent their homes, and one that calculates the imputed rent, called owners’ equivalent rent, or what homeowners would have to pay each month to rent their own house.
The first of these two measures is calculated in a way that is particularly lagged, meaning changes being reported today reflect changes in rent from six to nine months earlier. Because rents rose strongly over the past year, these increases are now filtering into reported inflation measures.
Possible. I dunno. But until Biden relents on his energy policies inflation, even if it does not rise still more, could just plateau out at a very high level, say 8+%, which would help nobody.
We need massive North American energy production to move inflation down. And that is something Biden is dead set against and resolutely, actively opposing. That which Trump gave us, in the energy realm, Biden has cancelled, squandered, and badmouthed to death. It’s all an homage to his renewables false idols.
It’s more about the pressure coming from the extreme left side of the Democratic party. Obama was actually helpful to the fracking business a decade ago, when Biden was VP.
That’s what I’m wondering. Inflation slows as demand slows - but a lot of what’s fueling today’s inflation are “essentials” for which demand isnt going to shift drastically no matter how much it costs. The only solution for that would seem to be boosting production to eliminate the shortages.
The I-bond rate for this next six month period is going to be very interesting.
This isn’t the only factor. I agree energy prices play a big role in what we’re seeing, but runaway government spending and the handouts of the pandemic are coming back to bite us. I think those are the factors that can be moved the quickest and to the greatest effect. Americans typically think the GOP does a better job with the economy - you see this in Biden’s dismal approval ratings.
The problem is that the GOP can’t stop drinking the Trump Kool-Aid. He is kryptonite in suburbia and that’s a demographic they need to win if they want to take back the House and Senate. Get people like Youngkin and Sasse in front of the camera and get the lunatics peddling crazy conspiracy theories back in the asylum.
Here is what the backup at the port of Savannah looks like, and it’s not a huge port. From Hilton Head, I rarely saw ships at anchor awaiting dock time at the port. Now, it’s constant.
