Inflation/stagflation Thread

Quick search with GasBuddy is showing $5.65 vs $6.99 for Chevrons 30.4 miles apart
1615 E 5th St
Carson City, NV 89701
vs
2304 Lake Tahoe Blvd
South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150

But this is taxes, government regulation, and to a lesser extent land value/transportation costs. I assume that is almost always the case but there are also higher prices at the places less traveled/less competition.

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I used to manage a convenience store. We use to get Pepsi delivered at a cost that was higher than what the local grocery stores retailed it for. It all came from the same place, often even the same delivery truckā€¦

Who owns those two stations? Does one owner have a half-dozen locations, while the other only has the one? Does one pump a lot more volume than the other, this earning better pricing? Does one have a pesky competitor across the street always trying to undercut him, thus he has no choice regardless of cost? There are so many variables involved.

This is from 2017, but it says for that year Speedway had increased itā€™s profit per gallon to 18-cents from just under 16-cents(it dropped back down to 16.5-cents the following year). Thatā€™s cents per gallon, not a percentage - as prices go up, the margins remain the same.

Not any sort of authoritative source, but

Contrary to what most consumers think, higher gas profits do not mean higher profits for individual station owners. When fuel prices shoot up, and drivers suspect price gouging, stations barely break even and may even lose money. When prices go down, drivers stop shopping for the best prices and fill up their tanks instead. They also have more money to spend at convenience stores.

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This right there tells me that they do indeed have some choice in the matter, which makes me think that stations with higher prices are making a higher profit than the $0.10/g you mentioned earlier. Much higher.

Youā€™re defending gas station prices as if they were regulated or limited somehow. I donā€™t think thatā€™s the case ā€“ I think they can set whatever price they want (unless thereā€™s a competitor across the street, then they canā€™t be too far off). Iā€™ve always known and your linked article confirms that when oil prices go up, prices at the pump go up real quick, but when oil prices go down, prices at the pump linger.

Oil price commentary from an energy focused hedge fund

After years of the oil industry burning through its inventory of developed and delineated reserves and spare production capacity, undersupply is kicking in

ESG-driven divestment and a prolonged down-cycle have reduced the production capacity of the oil and gas industry. Unlike the prior up-cycle from 1998 to 2014, which saw a buildup of activity and investment as the price of oil rose from a low of $11 up to a range of $80-120 that lasted for years, investment in oil services capacity in the current cycle is low. Services capacity needs to be expanded before production can sustainably grow to meet growing demand. It will take years to expand oil services capacity, and then years to deploy it to grow sufficient production to eventually stabilize prices. This process has barely started

OPEC+ production misses are not yet widely understood but may shock the market and lead to a period of higher prices. OPEC+ countries have been unwinding their production limitations since early 2021, but less rapidly than they agreed to. This is unusual in OPECā€™s history, as ā€œcheatingā€ had always been to the upside vs quota levels, especially in periods where market prices were higher, implying that spare capacity may have been overstated.

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And of course the problems are never his fault and the buck always stops somewhere else. Hereā€™s Bidenā€™s latest excuse

Republicans are doing nothing but obstructing our efforts to crack down on gas-price gouging, lower food prices, lower healthcare costs, and hopefully, soon, lower your prescription drug costs.

This is not right. And thatā€™s why this election is going to be so darn important.

Well, he got the last part right, but Iā€™m pretty sure he told me that high gas and food prices were all Putinā€™s fault, but maybe his political opponents are in league with Russia somehow.

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CPI on deck for Wednesday this week. Longer term expectations for inflation have fallen with the market, but I wouldnā€™t be surprised to see a fairly high rate for last month continue similar to recent ones.

  • NY Fed: June Three-Year-Ahead Expected Inflation at 3.6% From May 3.9%
  • NY Fed: June Five-Year-Ahead Expected Inflation at 2.8%% From May 2.9%
  • NY Fed: June One-Year-Ahead Expected Inflation at Record 6.8% From May 6.6% ā€“ WSJ
  • MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. CONSUMERS SAY THEIR HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL SITUATION DETERIORATED FROM A YEAR AGO AND NEARLY HALF EXPECT IT TO WORSEN IN THE YEAR AHEAD, BOTH UP FROM MAY - NY FED
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Please bear in mind this is from a liberal source, Newsweek, friendly to Biden:

If true, not good for us or for inflation here. If Biden thinks he can go to Saudi with a human rights message for MBS and win acceptance or concessions, well . . . . . . good luck with that!! It hainā€™t gonna happen.

I donā€™t recall a Saudi anti-American, pro-Russian stance when Trump was POTUS. Heck, Kushner darn near had 'em willing to hold hands with Israel for goodness sake!! Seems like now there is a 180 degree turnaround since Trump lost.

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If thereā€™s one thing this administration is good at, itā€™s meeting lowered expectations. Fair warning for Wedā€™s CPI -

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-11/white-house-foresees-june-inflation-reading-as-highly-elevated

EXPECT NEW CPI DATA TO BE HIGHLY ELEVATED : WHITE HOUSE

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the report to show consumer prices rose 8.8% in June from a year earlier, which would be a fresh 40-year high following an 8.6% reading in May.

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Oil prices down on these news items today, only $100/barrel.

  • OPEC Oil Output Rose 234,000 B/D in June to 28.72M B/D, Cartel Says Citing Secondary Sources

  • OPEC Oil Output From Members With Quotas Stood at 24.81M B/D, 1.06M B/D Behind Quotas

  • Global GDP Growth to Slow to 3.2% in 2023, From 3.5% in 2022, OPEC Says

Meanwhile, on the Fed side, rate hikes are likely to keep coming in on the high side of expected.

ā€œThe tremendous momentum in the economy to me suggests that we can move at 75 basis points at the next meeting and not see a lot of protracted damage to the broader economy." - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

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Oil even lower, high $90s now. Also a reminder that rents rise slowly and will keep pressure on the CPI and inflation numbers for a year or more.

Housing could provide more fuel for inflation . Climbing housing costs are set to keep inflation elevated this year, creating another challenge for Federal Reserve officials who want to see signs that price pressures are easing before slowing their interest rate increases.

Overall annual inflation rose to 8.6% in May, while core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, hit 6%, according to the Labor Departmentā€™s consumer-price index. The June figures are set to be released Wednesday.

More here:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/housing-could-provide-more-fuel-for-inflation-11657618231

Housing inflation is important because it represents around two-fifths of core CPI and one-sixth of the Fedā€™s preferred inflation gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index.

housing costs are represented in government inflation data by two main components, one that attempts to capture the monthly costs for people who rent their homes, and one that calculates the imputed rent, called ownersā€™ equivalent rent, or what homeowners would have to pay each month to rent their own house.

The first of these two measures is calculated in a way that is particularly lagged, meaning changes being reported today reflect changes in rent from six to nine months earlier. Because rents rose strongly over the past year, these increases are now filtering into reported inflation measures.

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with the rising mortgage rates more people are priced out of buying with predictable results on renting

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Lowering expectations for tomorrowā€™s CPI

https://www.axios.com/2022/07/12/cpi-inflation-white-house-may

  • IMPACT OF ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES ON ANNUAL HEADLINE CPI IN JUNE WILL LIKELY EXCEED 40%, BASED ON MARKET EXPECTATIONS -WHITE HOUSE MEMO

  • WHITE HOUSE MEMO NOTES DECLINE IN ENERGY PRICES SINCE PRICES MEASURED FOR JUNE CPI

  • U.S. ECONOMIC DATA, INCLUDING JUNE JOBS REPORT, NOT CONSISTENT WITH RECESSION IN FIRST OR SECOND QUARTER -WHITE HOUSE MEMO

  • U.S. ECONOMY APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO PERIOD OF SLOWER JOB AND ECONOMIC GROWTH -WHITE HOUSE MEMO

  • GASOLINE PRICES LIKELY TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE THAN 100% OF EXPECTED INCREASE IN ANNUAL CPI IN JUNE REPORT DUE ON WEDNESDAY -WHITE HOUSE MEMO

  • U.S. GASOLINE PRICES CAN BE EXPECTED TO DECLINE IN WEEKS AHEAD -WHITE HOUSE MEMO

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Q: How do we know the CPI numbers will be out shortly?

A: Biden left last evening for Israel. :wink:

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Supply chains. Rail and truck strikes, and China delays

June CPI results. 1.3% for the month is 17% annualized!

  • US Jun Consumer Prices 1.3%; Consensus 1.1%
  • US Jun CPI Ex-Food & Energy 0.7%; Consensus 0.5%
  • US Jun Consumer Prices Increase 9.1% From Year Earlier; Core CPI Up 5.9% Over Year

market reaction and Fed expectations -

  • FED SWAPS SHOW AROUND 79BP HIKES PRICED IN FOR JULY AFTER CPI
  • U.S. INTEREST RATES FUTURES NOW SEE 80% CHANCE OF ANOTHER 75 BPS HIKE IN SEPT -FEDWATCH
  • U.S. RATE FUTURES PRICING IN 22% CHANCE OF 100 BPS HIKE IN JULY MEETING, 79% OF 75 BPS -FEDWATCH
  • DXY Dollar Index Rises to 108.443 After US Inflation Data From 107.847 Beforehand
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9.1%

Holy crap!!!

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Itā€™s bad, but could this be the peak? I was thinking about this earlier and we are already seeing drop in consumer demand and purchasing.

Possible. I dunno. But until Biden relents on his energy policies inflation, even if it does not rise still more, could just plateau out at a very high level, say 8+%, which would help nobody.

We need massive North American energy production to move inflation down. And that is something Biden is dead set against and resolutely, actively opposing. That which Trump gave us, in the energy realm, Biden has cancelled, squandered, and badmouthed to death. Itā€™s all an homage to his renewables false idols.

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Itā€™s more about the pressure coming from the extreme left side of the Democratic party. Obama was actually helpful to the fracking business a decade ago, when Biden was VP.

Today that which you describe, as above, is the Democrat Party mainstream. They are in total control of the party.

That was then. This is now. President Obama has not been in the big chair for a while.

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