Inflation/stagflation Thread

I don’t think we really know what the majority of voters have or don’t have a problem with. I think plenty of voters, especially now, side with “their” party or just against “the other” party no matter what, even if it’s not their first choice.

Oil comments and debunking Dear Leader’s claims that he would likely save money timing the oil markets to refill it. Timing his begging abroad fared rather less well.

The Biden administration’s decision to drain a significant portion of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for electoral purposes is likely to cost taxpayers billions of dollars.

In an attempt to reign in skyrocketing gas prices resulting from ill-advised energy policies, the Biden administration began releasing millions of barrels of oilfrom the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in November 2021. The SPR was established by President Gerald Ford in 1975 to provide a backup supply of oil for the United States in the event of a severe emergency or embargo.

…intent to begin purchasing oil to refill the SPR “next year” and the White House recently announced that they plan to start refilling the supply when prices are “at or below about $67-$72 per barrel.” However, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the average spot price for Brent crude oil is predicted to be $95 per barrel in 2023, even higher than the price of oil today.

And let we forget someone with better timing,

In comparison, the average spot price of Brent crude oil was just $57.90 per barrel during the Trump administration, dropping as low as $25 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. In March 2020, the Trump administration attempted to completely fill the SPR with historically cheap oil, but was blocked by Senate Democrats who at the time called it a “bailout” for the industry. Now the Biden administration may pay almost four times as much taxpayer money for the same amount of oil.

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Those Evil Big Oil companies, charging more when prices go up. Steal them and let Dear Leader run them instead. We can be Venezuela in no time.

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Earlier this month, Bordoff (dean Columbia school of Climate Change) told the World Economic Forum, which has called for a “Great Reset” to quickly move from fossil fuels to renewables, that climate change required a “massive transition” that is “going to be messy, it’s going to be disruptive.”

If Biden can spend $500 billion to buy off college loans for the election, what’s to stop him from nationalizing the oil industry with a stroke of a pen? And the Roberts courts will find that no one has standing to challenge.

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U.S. inventory stood at 106.2 million barrels of distillate, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, in the week ended Oct. 14, the Energy Information Administration said. That’s about 20% below the five-year average and equates to about a 26-day supply.

Because diesel fuel is similar to heating oil, demand’s about to rise due to home heating this winter. “This is concerning,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis oil and refined products analyst at GasBuddy.com.

“Between now and the end of November, if we don’t build inventories, the wolf will be at the door,” Kloza said. “And it will look like a big ugly wolf if it’s a cold winter.”

Dear Leader dislikes windfalls that don’t pay him 10%. Energy company windfall profit tax to be proposed later today.

Elections matter, just as we’ve seen in Brazil (PBR -7% today on the socialist victory). Don’t forget to vote!

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Lula’s party didn’t win a majority in Brazil’s congress. He’ll likely have a hard time passing legislation. Most likely will resort to decrees.

Fed meeting tomorrow.

Could be worse, we could be Europe.

image

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I am trying to figure out the meaning of the word “print” when used with respect to inflation and the fed. I’ve heard that recently on financial programs.

Trades are sometimes referred to as “a print” on the long lost ticker tape. Here they’re talking about specific monthly CPI readings I guess

pre-Fed discussion with a couple experts on Fed tea leaf reading and monetary issues generally.

I’m leaning towards being concerned that they will continue raising rates even more than people expect, not for this meeting but generally in the next few .

If you look at the historical chart of the federal funds rate, it is the last 12 years that are outliers. I think the rate can increase substantially to try to reduce the effects of the helicopter Ben Bernanke craziness.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart

It may be the best move for the next 50 years, but doing so will also cause a whole lot of hurt in the interim. I dont know if anyone has the fortitude to follow through.

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+0.75% as expected. Fed comments:

  • Powell Says Watching Financial Conditions Tightening, Eco Impact
  • Powell Says Very Important That We Move Expeditiously, Have Done So
  • Powell Says How Far to Go Is the Important Question Right Now
  • Powell Says There’s Some Ground to Cover before We Meet That Test
  • FED’S POWELL: DATA SUGGESTS WE MAY ULTIMATELY MOVE TO HIGHER LEVELS THAN WE THOUGHT AT SEPT MEETING
  • Powell Says Lot of Uncertainty with Lags of Policy Effects
  • POWELL: SPEED IS BECOMING LESS IMPORTANT NOW
  • Powell Says Time to Slow Rate Hikes May Come as Soon as Next Meeting
  • Powell Says Likely We’ll Have Discussion of Smaller Hike in Dec
  • FED’S POWELL: DONT THINK WE HAVE OVERTIGHTENED
  • Powell Says Rate Hikes Have Been Good, Successful
  • Powell Says We’ll Want Policy Rate to Where Real Rate Is Positive
  • Powell Says Financial Conditions Have Tightened Quite a Bit
  • Powell Says Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Have Moved Back Down
  • FED’S POWELL: SHORT-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HAVE MOVED UP, MAY AFFECT WAGES
  • Powell Says Haven’t Clearly Identified Way to Say Inflation Entrenched
  • FED’S POWELL: IF WE OVERTIGHTEN, CAN USE OUR TOOLS TO RESPOND
  • Powell Says Don’t Want to Fail to Tighten Enough, Loosen Too Soon
  • Powell Says Very Premature to Think About Pausing Rate Hikes
  • POWELL: NO SENSE THAT INFLATION IS COMING DOWN
  • POWELL: PAUSING `NOT SOMETHING WE’RE THINKING ABOUT’
  • Powell Says People Should Understand Fed Commitment on Inflation
  • Powell: At Some Point You’ll See Rents Coming Down
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S&P down ~2% but 10 year yield down several basis points. Real yield of 5 year TIPS also down several basis points.

The new Twitter isn’t afraid to fact check Biden’s “record social security checks going out!”… due to his record inflation. Of course then they deleted the tweet.

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customer energy subsidies the latest midterm pitch

That was a really stupid tweet :rofl:. A faulty logic reminiscent of the previous president.

Look at the source you linked to - it’s obviously just Russian misinformation! Even if the quoted Tweets are real. :wink:

Our goal is to make Twitter the most accurate source of information on Earth, without regard to political affiliation.

How can anyone possibly object to this goal?

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What’s the stock market reacting to? This increase has been considered a given for weeks now. Is it because they didnt slam the door on any further increases? I’d say that Treasuries are still indicating that they’re going to overshoot the sweet spot, or may have already done so…