Inflation/stagflation Thread

Trees do not grow to the sky

The fear of interest rate increases has influenced people’s thinking — it’s not just the homeowners, it’s new buyers who wanted to get in before the interest rates went up even more,” Shiller recently told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

“They wanted to lock in. So that’s been a positive influence on the market. But it’s coming to an end,” he added.

U.S. home prices notched a record high in May, rising 0.7% nationally from April at a seasonally adjusted rate, according to data from another benchmark, the Black Knight Home Price Index.

“I think … people don’t know what to make of the ‘what is the Fed going to do?’ situation,” Shiller said.

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Nationally, yes. Some regions (mine) will continue to hold, or increase, prices, even as new inventory enters the market. I don’t expect the Charlotte market to cool until we are several months into a recession. If a Democrat is in the White House, it will be called a non-recession, or a Republican recession.

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Some news items pointing to a wage price spiral.

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Gasoline $3 a gallon? Here in Cali it’s over $5.

  • Gasoline prices have gained around 20% year-to-date.
  • This week, gasoline topped $2.90 per gallon and may yet reach $3.
  • In the United States, gasoline inventories are lower than the five-year average both because of the gap between demand and production rates but also because of unplanned refinery outages.

In the United States, gasoline inventories are lower than the five-year average both because of the gap between demand and production rates but also because of unplanned refinery outages, Bloomberg noted in its report, such as the one at Exxon’s Baton Rouge facility from earlier this week.

Here in Cali ARCO and Costco < $4.50. GasBuddy to the rescue!

This isn’t really a big deal, because we have the SPI which must be 75% full by now. It would be irresponsible non-Bidenesque to leave the SPI at the lowest levels since inception.

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Here in CA “gas buddy” helps $4.50. But I must use premium gas $5.+ in my Mercedes. Even my Ford 450 uses $5.- at my gas :fuelpump: stations.

Never fear :cold_sweat: I’m not complaining. :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:

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Not in Silicon Valley.

Also

$4.50 >> $3

Scripta, as I recall you reside somewhere in Southern CA. I’m not positive but I think :thinking: economy prices are somewhat lower in your “neck of the woods”.

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I was in Silicon Valley only a few weeks ago and found a few ARCO stations in the $4.60-70 range. It’s true that they were not as easy to find as in SoCal.

The third-largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier and fifth-largest transportation company in the U.S. faced massive debt and a standoff against the International Brotherhood of Teamsters. The closure would mean 30,000 lost jobs.

The company received a $700 million loan in 2020 from the federal government as part of pandemic relief during the Trump administration

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nice graph that shows how the various components of CPI, ie housing, energy, etc, have contributed recently on a monthly basis thru June.

Energy has been a detractor in recent months, ie lowering the impact of inflation as it fell, but that impact will be going the other way now. Oil for example has risen over +$10/barrel from June to July.

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The contributions correspond to Year-over-Year change, not month-to-month, right? So energy on the next month’s chart would be compared to July '22, not June '23, so still negative, just not as much (i.e., you’re right that it will go up next month, just clarifying that it’s not that much). Energy also includes natural gas, which is down like 70% from last summer.

Also primary shelter should continue going down. I think food prices stabilized a while back and should continue decreasing the impact on CPI. Core goods and services appear to be on the right track. Soooo… good news all around? :smile:

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  • U.S. DEBT TO GDP RATIO NOW AT ALL TIME HIGH
  • U.S. GOVT. DEBT NOW 130% OF GDP
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Mortgages (total balance, not payments) are often 5+ times the borrower’s annual income. So we still have plenty of room to spend even more!

I couldn’t like your post, but I can respond appropriately …

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

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Except GDP is not income. If you’re going to compare that way, the debt is 7 times the annual revenue. And mortgages are fixed for 30 years, not variable. :cry:

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And increasing astronomically geometrically biden-mathically (hunter or the big guy - their math is the same, whether drug fueled or greed fueled).

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July CPI +0.2%, or +2.4% annualized. Core inflation for the month was the same, +2.4% annual.

  • U.S CPI (MOM) (JUL) ACTUAL: 0.2% VS 0.2% PREVIOUS; EST 0.2%
  • U.S CPI (YOY) (JUL) ACTUAL: 3.2% VS 3.0% PREVIOUS; EST 3.3%
  • US Jul Consumer Prices 0.2%; Consensus 0.2%
  • US Jul CPI Ex-Food & Energy 0.2%; Consensus 0.2%
  • US Jul Consumer Prices Increase 3.2% From Year Earlier; Core CPI Up 4.7% Over Year
  • US Jul CPI Energy Prices 0.1%; Food Prices 0.2%
  • US Real Average Weekly Earnings Unchanged
  • CPI 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.2%
  • CPI 3.2% YoY, Exp. 3.3%
  • CPI Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.2%
  • CPI Core 4.7% YoY, Exp. 4.7%

stock market liked the news, fixed income markets suggesting lower chances for additional rate hikes

  • U.S. SHORT-TERM INTEREST-RATE FUTURES GAIN AFTER CPI INFLATION REPORT, AS TRADERS FIRM BETS AGAINST ANOTHER FED RATE HIKE
  • FED SWAPS PRICE IN LOWER ODDS OF ANOTHER RATE HIKE THIS YEAR
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That is the headline according to yahoo.

Inflation slow down stalls

Consumer prices showed a faster year-over-year increase in July compared to the previous month’s annual gain, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Thursday morning.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.2% in July over the prior year, a slight acceleration from June’s 3% annual increase. Prices were up 0.2% in July from the previous month, in line with June’s 0.2% month-over-month increase.

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