Investment impact of Russia Ukraine crisis

Finance
641

More escalation

  • GERMANY TO NATIONALIZE FORMER GAZPROM UNIT SEFE
  • POLAND TO SEIZE GAZPROM PIPELINE ASSETS IN POLAND

Meanwhile, the ground freezes in Ukraine in a week or so and Putin won’t be attending the G20 conference coming up. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a counteroffensive to this Ukrainian pushback in the coming weeks.

642

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a counteroffensive to this Ukrainian pushback in the coming weeks.

I take it you haven’t kept abreast of the current state of Russian equipment…

(And no – the ground does not freeze that early in Ukraine – certainly not hard enough for tanks to cross. That was why the original invasion was timed for end-of-January / beginning-of-February. – not that this point matters, because the notion that Russia has a bunch of great equipment in reserve waiting for another freeze is farcical)

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Banksy mural also mocks Putin as undefeated “judo” expert

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Zelensky’s wish list. Would you like a unicorn with that?

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/ukrayina-zavzhdi-bula-liderom-mirotvorchih-zusil-yaksho-rosi-79141

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645

Practically speaking, unless Russia goes full-nuclear and glasses Ukraine, Ukraine is going to get a lot more of that list than you seem to expect.

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Poland collateral damage

  • At least two dead after Russian missiles land in NATO state Poland on Ukraine border: Express UK
  • RUSSIAN MISSILES CROSSED INTO POLAND, KILLING 2: AP confirmed
  • POLAND CONVENES NATIONAL SECURITY COMMITTEE MEETING: SPOKESMAN
  • Hungary’s Orban Convenes Defense Council Meeting, MTI Reports
  • POLISH AIRFORCE SCRAMBLES JETS FROM TOMASZOW-LUBELSKI AIRFIELD

Now we see what NATO does and whether we escalate even more.

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647

Collateral and not intentional i hope. Market dived initially, lets see how this plays out. I hope not Article V

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current speculation is that Ukraine shot down most/part of a Russian missile, and what was left crashed into Poland just across the border. Still developing…

  • HUNGARY MOL SAYS HAS BEEN NOTIFIED BY UKRAINE THAT OIL SUPPLY TO HUNGARY, SLOVAKIA AND CZECH REPUBLIC VIA DRUZHBA PIPELINE HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED - EMAILED STATEMENT
  • RUSSIA’S TRANSNEFT: HAS BEEN NOTIFIED BY UKRAINE THAT OIL SUPPLY TO HUNGARY VIA DRUZHBA PIPELINE IS TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED DUE TO FALL IN PRESSURE - RIA
  • POLISH GOVERNMENT TO HOLD EMERGENCY MEETING AT 9PM CET

and our response so far

  • PENTAGON SAYS CANNOT CORROBORATE REPORTS OF TWO RUSSIAN MISSILES CROSSING INTO POLAND AT THIS TIME
  • Ryder: Us Aware of Reported Russian Missiles Landing in Poland
  • Ryder: Us Seeks to Corroborate Reports
  • When it comes to our security commitments and Article Five, “we’ve been crystal clear” that we will defend NATO territory, Ryder said

response

  • Russia Calls Reports of Missiles Hitting Poland Provocation: IFX
  • Russia Denies Aiming Missiles Near Ukraine-Poland Border: TASS
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649

+1 Looks like stock market is shrugging it off, but commodities are up. Business as usual?

650

Of course. We still don’t even have confirmation of what happened,

  • POLISH REPORTER ON BLASTS TONIGHT: MY SOURCES IN THE SERVICES SAY THAT WHAT HIT PRZEWOWO IS MOST LIKELY THE REMAINS OF A [RUSSIAN] ROCKET SHOT DOWN BY THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE - RTE NEWS REPORTER TWEETS.

but time for another $40B!

  • WHITE HOUSE ASKS CONGRESS FOR $37.7 BILLION IN UKRAINE AID

You can see defense stocks and related commodities spiking intraday on the missiles news. Looks like only the commodities (oil, wheat) held their gains tho.

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looking like it was a Ukrainian interceptor missile that missed a Russian target and hit the Polish farm. Oops.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1592701636291743745

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Crisis averted

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bump

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aw, Poland isnt going invoke NATO Art 5 to make us all attack… Ukraine?

  • POLISH PRESIDENT SAYS NOTHING PROVES THERE WAS AN INTENTIONAL ATTACK ON POLAND
  • POLISH PRESIDENT SAYS IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THE ROCKET WAS USED BY UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE
  • POLISH PRESIDENT SAYS ROCKET WAS RUSSIAN-MADE, WE HAVE NO PROOF NOW IT WAS LAUNCHED BY RUSSIA
  • POLISH PRIME MINISTER SAYS IT MAY NOT BE NECESSARY TO LAUNCH NATO ART. 4 PROCEDURE
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so friendly fire, nothing to see here…

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Polish politician not amused at Zelensky’s lying about and fundraising off their citizens deaths by his errant missile.

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Of course he’s not amused, but he can hardly be surprised.

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658

I stand with Ukrainian Bots, or maybe the CIA Pro-Ukraine Bots.

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AP fires one of the reporters for trying to start WW3. His sole anonymous US intelligence source (that said the missile was shot by the Russians) remains, if he existed, still employed and undisclosed.

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Ukraine kicked out a bunch of CNN and Sky News journalists a week ago, for getting to a newly liberated city and reporting on it very quickly.

Sounds like they hadn’t finished cleaning up after the Nazis and weren’t ready for foreign press coverage just yet.

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