Investment impact of Russia Ukraine crisis

Russia warning the West that they had intel that Ukraine, possibly with the UK intelligence, were trying to set off a dirty / radioactive bomb in Ukraine as a false flag to blame Russia and correspondingly get more US and Western direct military involvement.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made the allegations in phone calls with his counterparts from the United States, Britain, France and Turkey.

Russia’s defense ministry said Shoigu voiced concern about “possible Ukrainian provocations involving a ‘dirty bomb,’” a device that uses explosives to scatter radioactive waste. It doesn’t have the devastating effect of a nuclear explosion, but could expose broad areas to radioactive contamination.

Russian authorities repeatedly have made allegations that Ukraine could detonate a dirty bomb in a false flag attack and blame it on Moscow. Ukrainian authorities, in turn, have accused the Kremlin of hatching such a plan.

Given Putin/Kremlin track record I tend to believe the Ukranian side, but this will definitely up the ante, impact markets.

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I remember when the progressives / liberals stood for peace and not war. A few of the progressive Democrats still do, and wrote a letter to the Biden Admin urging peace through diplomacy.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal had warned in leading the group’s letter, which was also singed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, “The longer the war in Ukraine goes on, the greater the risk of escalation — to widespread, devastating effect.” She said “my colleagues and I are urging the Administration to engage in a proactive diplomatic push in an effort to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire .”

Well, they didn’t Stand With Ukraine, and sure got a talking to from the Democratic leadership about the realities of the situation and how much money was getting funneled through Ukraine and how unimportant they were. A mere day later, they apologized and folded like a cheap suit.

Forget diplomacy, bring on Armageddon!

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Jayapal, AOC, and the other socialists penned that letter months ago, or so they claim now. Whenever I see The Squad et.al. up to something, my immediate reaction is to oppose it.

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the new UK PM leading the way to energy dependence.

Russian shell games, assets in the west.

Backup Link

These probably belong here:

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Remember when CBS had to toe the line and not say many of our weapons to Ukraine were being stolen by corrupt elements in the government or military? Well CBS still won’t say it since they Stand With Ukraine, but other European countries are willing to report the truth:

“Weapons shipped [by various countries] to Ukraine have also been found in Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands,” NBI Detective Superintendent Christer Ahlgren was quoted in the Finnish publication as saying.

“We’ve seen signs of these weapons already finding their way to Finland,” Ahlgren added. Some of this illicit arms trafficking is being brokered in online forums frequented by criminal gangs.

A question not answered by the article is that they are accustomed to having deliveries over the pipeline so maybe they don’t have storage facilities built.

From the article

But as LNG continues to be brought ashore, demand for facilities that heat the liquid and turn it back into gas remains high. There aren’t very many such plants in Europe, partly because the continent has long relied on gas delivered via pipelines from Russia instead.

So that’s one reason why LNG ships are waiting around - some are queuing for access to regasification terminals. In the meantime, Germany and the Netherlands have invested in new regasification facilities. Some, rapidly built using converted LNG ships pinned to docksides, are expected to become operational within months.
industrial activities that rely on gas have relaxed. This is something he and his colleagues track by scouring satellite images of factories.

“There’s been a very dramatic reduction in cement and steel production in Europe,” he says.

It all means that a market situation called contango has emerged for LNG, says Mr Carson. That is, when the future price of a commodity is higher than today’s price.

“You would get a higher price for a delivery for January than you would in November,” he explains.

Is this not the answer? They have some storage (sounds like it’s enough for the entire winter), and it’s almost full:

More escalation, US troops in Ukraine. “Advisors”

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Reminds me of Charley’s War and Afghans :frowning:

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More escalation

  • GERMANY TO NATIONALIZE FORMER GAZPROM UNIT SEFE
  • POLAND TO SEIZE GAZPROM PIPELINE ASSETS IN POLAND

Meanwhile, the ground freezes in Ukraine in a week or so and Putin won’t be attending the G20 conference coming up. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a counteroffensive to this Ukrainian pushback in the coming weeks.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a counteroffensive to this Ukrainian pushback in the coming weeks.

I take it you haven’t kept abreast of the current state of Russian equipment…

(And no – the ground does not freeze that early in Ukraine – certainly not hard enough for tanks to cross. That was why the original invasion was timed for end-of-January / beginning-of-February. – not that this point matters, because the notion that Russia has a bunch of great equipment in reserve waiting for another freeze is farcical)

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Banksy mural also mocks Putin as undefeated “judo” expert

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Zelensky’s wish list. Would you like a unicorn with that?

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/ukrayina-zavzhdi-bula-liderom-mirotvorchih-zusil-yaksho-rosi-79141

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Practically speaking, unless Russia goes full-nuclear and glasses Ukraine, Ukraine is going to get a lot more of that list than you seem to expect.

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Poland collateral damage

  • At least two dead after Russian missiles land in NATO state Poland on Ukraine border: Express UK
  • RUSSIAN MISSILES CROSSED INTO POLAND, KILLING 2: AP confirmed
  • POLAND CONVENES NATIONAL SECURITY COMMITTEE MEETING: SPOKESMAN
  • Hungary’s Orban Convenes Defense Council Meeting, MTI Reports
  • POLISH AIRFORCE SCRAMBLES JETS FROM TOMASZOW-LUBELSKI AIRFIELD

Now we see what NATO does and whether we escalate even more.

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Collateral and not intentional i hope. Market dived initially, lets see how this plays out. I hope not Article V

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current speculation is that Ukraine shot down most/part of a Russian missile, and what was left crashed into Poland just across the border. Still developing…

  • HUNGARY MOL SAYS HAS BEEN NOTIFIED BY UKRAINE THAT OIL SUPPLY TO HUNGARY, SLOVAKIA AND CZECH REPUBLIC VIA DRUZHBA PIPELINE HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED - EMAILED STATEMENT
  • RUSSIA’S TRANSNEFT: HAS BEEN NOTIFIED BY UKRAINE THAT OIL SUPPLY TO HUNGARY VIA DRUZHBA PIPELINE IS TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED DUE TO FALL IN PRESSURE - RIA
  • POLISH GOVERNMENT TO HOLD EMERGENCY MEETING AT 9PM CET

and our response so far

  • PENTAGON SAYS CANNOT CORROBORATE REPORTS OF TWO RUSSIAN MISSILES CROSSING INTO POLAND AT THIS TIME
  • Ryder: Us Aware of Reported Russian Missiles Landing in Poland
  • Ryder: Us Seeks to Corroborate Reports
  • When it comes to our security commitments and Article Five, “we’ve been crystal clear” that we will defend NATO territory, Ryder said

response

  • Russia Calls Reports of Missiles Hitting Poland Provocation: IFX
  • Russia Denies Aiming Missiles Near Ukraine-Poland Border: TASS
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