Europe doesn’t have many options to deal with the immediate shortages. Essentially everything that can be done quickly has been done… Europe’s remaining near-term alternatives are now a brutal combination of more shutdowns, outright rationing, massive inflationary subsidies for citizens, and bailouts for industries. Some are already talking of nationalizing critical industries, which would hand Putin another victory.
At current prices, someone told me the cost of the war in terms of higher energy costs was on the order of 10-20% of Europe’s GDP. You might be able to print that for a year from your central bank (with predicable impacts to the Euro or Pound), but losing that much GDP every year is a recipe for disaster.
Speculation is that Russia sabotaged the Nord 1 Pipeline and it’s now leaking lots of gas from underwater holes.
SWEDISH UPPSALA UNIVERSITY SEISMOLOGIST REGARDING NORD STREAM: WE ARE VERY CERTAIN THESE WERE EXPLOSIONS, THIS WAS NOT AN EARTHQUAKE AND NOT A LANDSLIDE
U.S. AUTHORITIES WEEKS AGO WARNED GERMANY ABOUT POSSIBLE ATTACKS ON GAS PIPELINES IN THE BALTICS -SPIEGEL, CITING SOURCES
Could well be a veiled threat to sabotage other north sea pipelines; Norway’s for example supply 1/4 of the nat gas to Europe and without those working, it would be a disaster.
I like the Polish guy who hilariously blamed Joseph Robinette Biden. Then, I read Biden’s threats. Yikes! Of course, Ukraine blamed Russia, which I suspect will be their default Boris Badenov for the next half-century. Germany will only say it was absolutely, positively sabotage.
I did not see who is responsible for maintenance/repair, but since Germany is nationalizing everything related to energy, I suppose they’ll get their u-boats out there to fix it pronto.
After the local elections, where the locals overwhelmingly in favor of joining Russia and not being killed (either by Russia for not voting, or by Ukraine as traitors for putting up with Russian control), we have this
RUSSIA TO FORMALLY ANNEX FOUR UKRAINE OCCUPIED REGIONS FRIDAY: KREMLIN
Other headlines today
KREMLIN CALLS INCIDENTS ON NORD STREAM PIPELINES ‘VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION’ WHICH NEEDS INVESTIGATION
[London Metals Exchange] TO CONSULT ON POSSIBLE BAN OF RUSSIAN METAL
GERMAN ANNUAL INFLATION RATE AT 10.0% IN SEPTEMBER - BUSINESS INSIDER, CITING GOVT SOURCES
Accurate forecast though me thinks Putin’s initial plan was to annex the whole of Ukraine. He never imagine the resolve of Zelensky and the Ukrainian population to keep their country independent. The special operation had to be redefined to Putin’s chagrin.
I suspect he never imagined the skill and accomplishment of the Ukrainian PR effort, and the attachment to those efforts. They have been exceptional in gathering allies.