Investment impact of Russia Ukraine crisis

or just print more (not right now though)…

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where else are they besides Syria?
Bigger problem is troop motivation some talk of rebellion if he goes nuclear. Not sure how true?

This guy is really incompetent- good thing he’s not in charge any more. He fell down a couple flights of stairs instead of finding a window.

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As expected

  • RUSSIA’S MEDVEDEV SAYS: RUSSIA IS READY TO DEFEND TERRITORIES ADDED TO IT WITH ALL MEANS, INCLUDING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS
  • RUSSIA’S MEDVEDEV: REFERENDA IN DONBAS ‘REPUBLICS’ WILL TAKE PLACE, THERE IS NO WAY BACK
  • RUSSIA’S MEDVEDEV: ANY RUSSIAN WEAPONS, INCLUDING NUCLEAR, CAN BE USED TO DEFEND TERRITORIES ADMITTED TO RUSSIA
  • SILUANOV: PROPOSES INTRODUCTION OF EXPORTS DUTY FOR FERTILIZERS AND COAL
  • RUSSIAN FINANCE MINISTER SILUANOV: WE PROPOSE HIKING EXPORT DUTY ON NATURAL GAS

meanwhile, paying the price

  • GERMANY BEGINS TALKS ON URGENT FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR REGIONAL PUBLIC ENERGY PROVIDERS - SOURCES
  • MUNICIPAL UTILITIES HEAD LIEBING SAYS SUPPORT MIGHT HAVE TO REACH “DOUBLE-DIGIT BILLIONS” EUROS
  • GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER: INFLATION THREATENS WEALTH, SECURITY AND STABILITY OF THIS COUNTRY
  • GERMAN GOVT TO NATIONALISE SEFE, PREVIOUSLY GAZPROM GERMANIA, - SPIEGEL ONLINE
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The EU energy situation

Europe doesn’t have many options to deal with the immediate shortages. Essentially everything that can be done quickly has been done… Europe’s remaining near-term alternatives are now a brutal combination of more shutdowns, outright rationing, massive inflationary subsidies for citizens, and bailouts for industries. Some are already talking of nationalizing critical industries, which would hand Putin another victory.

At current prices, someone told me the cost of the war in terms of higher energy costs was on the order of 10-20% of Europe’s GDP. You might be able to print that for a year from your central bank (with predicable impacts to the Euro or Pound), but losing that much GDP every year is a recipe for disaster.

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bump

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Speculation is that Russia sabotaged the Nord 1 Pipeline and it’s now leaking lots of gas from underwater holes.

SWEDISH UPPSALA UNIVERSITY SEISMOLOGIST REGARDING NORD STREAM: WE ARE VERY CERTAIN THESE WERE EXPLOSIONS, THIS WAS NOT AN EARTHQUAKE AND NOT A LANDSLIDE

U.S. AUTHORITIES WEEKS AGO WARNED GERMANY ABOUT POSSIBLE ATTACKS ON GAS PIPELINES IN THE BALTICS -SPIEGEL, CITING SOURCES

Could well be a veiled threat to sabotage other north sea pipelines; Norway’s for example supply 1/4 of the nat gas to Europe and without those working, it would be a disaster.

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Roundup of commentary on the pipeline damage, which looks serious. Who to blame is less clear.

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I like the Polish guy who hilariously blamed Joseph Robinette Biden. Then, I read Biden’s threats. Yikes! Of course, Ukraine blamed Russia, which I suspect will be their default Boris Badenov for the next half-century. Germany will only say it was absolutely, positively sabotage.

I did not see who is responsible for maintenance/repair, but since Germany is nationalizing everything related to energy, I suppose they’ll get their u-boats out there to fix it pronto.

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After the local elections, where the locals overwhelmingly in favor of joining Russia and not being killed (either by Russia for not voting, or by Ukraine as traitors for putting up with Russian control), we have this

  • RUSSIA TO FORMALLY ANNEX FOUR UKRAINE OCCUPIED REGIONS FRIDAY: KREMLIN

Other headlines today

  • KREMLIN CALLS INCIDENTS ON NORD STREAM PIPELINES ‘VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION’ WHICH NEEDS INVESTIGATION

  • [London Metals Exchange] TO CONSULT ON POSSIBLE BAN OF RUSSIAN METAL

  • GERMAN ANNUAL INFLATION RATE AT 10.0% IN SEPTEMBER - BUSINESS INSIDER, CITING GOVT SOURCES

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More of the obvious from Germany

  • SCHOLZ: NORD STREAM DAMAGE MEANS NO GAS IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE
  • GERMAN CHANCELLOR SCHOLZ: GAS PRICES TO CONSUMERS HAVE TO COME DOWN
  • GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK: ENERGY CRISIS THREATENS TO GROW INTO A SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS
  • GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER LINDNER: WE ARE IN AN ENERGY WAR
  • GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER LINDNER: WE WILL MOBILISE OUR ECONOMIC STRENGTH WHEN NECESSARY, LIKE NOW

After the local elections, where the locals overwhelmingly in favor of joining Russia and not being killed…

You mean not being killed by the Russian soldiers going door-to-door securing “join” votes?

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