Investment impact of Russia Ukraine crisis

Of course. The enemy is a propagandist extraordinaire. Thus, we can’t trust any of our own media. The enemy may have mind probes that influence our media darlings. We must admit there are men who stare at goats. :dizzy_face:

ETA: Alternatively, coming to America. :slight_smile:

I know you’re an old goose, but your point of view is immature. Ukraine is at a huge disadvantage in this conflict – they have fewer people and much fewer resources than Russia. They must keep their spirits up to remain in the fight, and that’s hard to do if the enemy’s propaganda, or even the truth, is allowed to roam freely.

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Thanks for the a mature viewpoint. It also seems to be the viewpoint of every “victim” in the U.S.

Warmonger in Chief’s latest - sending our troops into harms way, or at least closer.

it is necessary to augment the active Armed Forces of the United States for the effective conduct of Operation Atlantic Resolve in and around the United States European Command’s area

Because calling up 3000 reservists is “warmongering?” And Germany is in harms way?

I thought Operation Atlantic Resolve was a NATO op. Why would we need to call up additional troops for NATO? … unless it’s for the Netherlands division of NATO … which has gone … :upside_down_face:

good article on the intentionally poorly enforced “russian oil price cap”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/07/19/russia-oil-sanctions-through-the-smoke-and-mirrors/284875d8-25ef-11ee-9201-826e5bb78fa1_story.html

beneficiaries are Iran, Venezuela on the oil supply front, and India/China on the cheap oil purchasing side. Of course the latter means that China and India want to make sure the war lasts as long as possible for their pocketbook.

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Currency rates for Rubles, big US bucks. Goldman Sachs doing Gods work, as usual…

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-02/the-us-is-more-aa-now

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But when Russia invaded Ukraine, all of a sudden there was a real arbitrage: Suddenly nobody in the US or most of Europe wanted to own rubles, and … I won’t say that nobody in Russia wanted to own dollars or euros, exactly,[[4]] but for patriotic and capital-control reasons there was a lot of demand from Russian exporters to exchange their dollars into rubles. So for a while you could buy a dollar for 59 rubles in Moscow and sell a dollar for 61.5 rubles in New York, which is a pretty good trade. The trade was complicated, though, by the fact that a US or European bank probably wouldn’t be welcome to buy dollars in Moscow, for patriotic and capital-control and sanctions reasons, while a Russian bank probably wouldn’t be welcome to sell dollars in New York, for similar reasons. So who can do the arbitrage?

The answer is Armenian and Kazakh banks, of course, with an assist from like Goldman Sachs. Bloomberg’s [Donal Griffin, Nariman Gizitdinov and William Shaw report]

As Western companies and international investors rushed to exit Russia amid the Ukraine invasion and the sweeping sanctions that followed, they were desperate to swap their rubles for dollars. For currency traders at firms including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase & Co., it was easy money: They found a way to scoop up greenbacks at a low price and then sell them to those fleeing clients for a healthy markup without running afoul of sanctions, people with direct knowledge of the transactions said.

To pull it off, the people said, the Wall Street firms turned to an obscure source with which they had rarely traded dollars before: lenders based in countries deemed “friendly” by Russia and not sanctioned by the US, such as Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan JSC and First Heartland Jusan Bank JSC and Kaspi.kz JSC in Kazakhstan and Ameriabank CJSC in Armenia. Those lenders were able to buy dollars directly from Russian banks around that country’s local exchange rate, which at times was far less than what was quoted abroad, the people said.

The transactions helped turn small trading desks into money-minting machines and drove a broader surge in fixed-income trading revenue that was the second-highest in a decade. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and JPMorgan each made hundreds of millions of dollars from the ruble trade as the war ground on last year, according to the people, who requested anonymity as details are private.

“In war, normally two entities make money,” said Jason Kennedy, chief executive officer of financial-services recruitment firm Kennedy Group. “Arms dealers and banks.”

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Although the USD debt downgrade was mentioned, there was no comment on the timing. The alert/warning was issued at the beginning of the summer. The actual downgrade was issued in in the middle of the summer. Our summer is not the same worldwide. However, our summer coincides with European, Mexican, and Canadian summers. Summer is the time to sell and enjoy a vacation. Thus, there may be large stock/exchange/bond swings, but they are typically low volume. A great time to “make/obscure” news is August.

I don’t think the timing made much of a difference, but financial news in August is almost like the White House releasing Joe Biden’s mental health results/ Hunter Biden’s drug test failure results on a Friday afternoon amidst the NASA/Agriculture/NOAA/Transgender-acceptance avalanche of paperwork.

What a nice article. Although no one wants to leave money on the table, a 2.5 ruble spread leaves lots of padding for intermediaries. The efficiency of markets is proven once again. Way to go, Capitalism!

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War heating up

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Time to send a few more billions to Ukraine. Always double down spending on failures instead of admitting you were wrong.

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You may have misspoken. I think you meant to say “Time for the U.S. to send a few more billion to Ukraine.” :smiley:

Still unconfirmed but…

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confirmed.

WAGNER GROUP LEADER YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN WAS PASSENGER ON CRASHED PLANE - FT CITES RUSSIAN OFFICIALS.

WAGNER LEADER ON PLANE, DEAD

Plane Carrying Wagner Owner Prigozhin Crashes in Russia, All Aboard Killed. Footage posted by onlookers in the Tver region showed what seemed like the trail of an antiaircraft missile and then the jet, an Embraer Legacy 600, falling out of the sky with one wing missing.

You come at the king, you best not miss.

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BBC article mentions a second plane owned by him landed safely. Was he dumb enough to put his name as a passenger on his own plane? Conspiracy theory says he faked his own death :smile:

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Along with Ron Brown. :slight_smile:

I should submit this to the IRS whistleblower hotline - I found $5M of our tax dollars in Egypt.

the family of Ukrainian President Zelensky purchased a luxurious villa in El Gouna, which is known locally as “the city of millionaires.” The document reveals that the VIP estate, worth $5 million, is owned by Olga Kiyashko, whose name matches that of Zelensky’s mother-in-law.

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Zelensky was rich before he got involved in politics. Unless you have proof, those are not our tax dollars.

Why Zelensky? I think the real question is whether his mother-in-law was rich before the U.S. started throwing billions at Ukraine.

ETA: What qualifies as rich, anyway?

Corruption? No corruption in Ukraine, send more $billions pls. Well maybe every top official we checked on, but definitely not Zelensky.

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