Products with real supply chain risk?

Finance
#1

In the same vein as the thoughts of possible credit card /airline points cuts (which have since been announced), looking for brainstorming input.

There’s the paper products… not really concerned about those, seems really temporary.

Pasta had an early run on supplies, but seems not a big deal to me if I don’t have pasta.

What about exotic foods?
Things like avocados you can’t do anything about, because there’s not shelf life.

What about coffee? (without covid19, we already consumed more than was made globally last year) And it’s not grown locally.
I’m thinking of buying 30-60 lb of coffee to cover me for a year.

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#2

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#3

You are saying more coffee was consumed in the first 4 months of this year than was produced in 2019? Source?

#4

No. More coffee consumed than produced both over the year, not the beginning of this year compared to the whole year…

#5

Rice was one of the first items in short supply but not anymore. Toilet paper is still out of stock in my area. But bottled water is not. Pork might be the next item at risk. Eet mor chikin…
https://www.theblaze.com/news/one-of-americas-largest-meat-producers-has-ominous-warning-about-grocery-store-supply

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#6

I’m seeing this now in my local stores - they have pretty much all products, but (for example) instead of 43 different choices of dish soap, they have 5 choices of dish soap. If you’re brand loyal, you probably should stock up on that brand. But if you’re just looking for coffee, the coffee aisle will probably continue to have something for you to buy. The meat department should remain stocked, the only question being with what specifically. Anything can succumb to a Covid-19 hot spot, but it probably isnt going to affect all producers of a given product.

Hand sanitizer is one thing where store inventories arent going to get caught back up until months after this is all over. Far too many people are using far more than is being produced, and that’s not going to stop - unlike toilet paper, where purchases are currently up but actual usage hasnt changed a bit.

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#7

I just realized something about toilet paper. Since most people are staying at home, the usage of consumer TP probably did increase quite a bit at the cost of commercial (larger rolls, lower quality) TP meant for offices. I heard stories of drive-throughs giving away some of their TP “with purchase”.

There’s a story of a small-ish vodka producer that used to supply bars, clubs, and restaurants and switched to making hand sanitizer. I suspect supply will catch up to demand sooner rather than later.

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#8

I’m still having difficulty locating shippable angel hair pasta, which is the only variety of spaghetti I consume. Meanwhile regular thin spaghetti remains available, but am not a fan.

#9

3 of the first 4 options when searching at Walmart.com are curently available for shipping. And it’s only 3 options because I didnt both to check beyond that.

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#10

Thank you, glitch99. Got some!

Most, to be honest, was OOS after a deep dive look. But you were right, regardless. Was able to find some Barilla they were willing to ship me, and I bought it. They are limiting quantities. I bought the max allowed.

Perhaps more on topic here, it was amazing the number of offerings which were OOS. When you need something today, and you locate it in shippable form, my advice is to GRAB IT!!

I dunno if it’s supply chain or what. But another item that has been a challenge for me is Welch’s grape juice. It is a substitute both for milk and for oranges, because Welch’s adds ascorbic acid to their juice.

Walmart has this juice but they limit quantities/order. My solution has been to place more orders. Shipping is very slow. But so far so good.

#11

Yes I saw a couple stores on that point. The residential and commercial TP lines are different. The residential demand is booming and the commercial demand has died. But its not easy to switch between producing commercial to residential. This is actually part of the supply problem.

#12

I’m not a coffee drinker so I really don’t know. But wouldn’t ground coffee, with the critical oils and all, volatilize and hence deteriorate over such a long interval of time? Now if you bought beans, instead, and just ground 'em as needed, that might be a more workable approach?

#13
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#14

Tasty bat snacks - “Chicken of the cave”

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#15

I don’t know the science behind it or if that’s a problem, but the best by date stamped on the Kirkland ground coffee I have in front of me (from a month or two ago) is 4/2021.

#16

The older coffee beens/grounds get the staler and weaker they will taste.

Should be safe unless it goes moldy

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#17

Correction, the other can in front of me shows 1/10/2022.

#18

Agreed. I was not thinking of or questioning safety.

Sounds good, then. Ability to preserve freshness likely depends on manner of containment. My mother and dad drank coffee. It was countless years ago. But seem to recall what they bought was in a sealed metal can and you could hear the rush of air when that can was opened. Suspect such as that would remain fresh longer than coffee in a bag.

#19

Hair dye! No one saw that coming. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-industry-says-we-have-enough-food-heres-why-some-store-shelves-are-empty-anyway/ar-BB12BuLk

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#20

@TheRealQCumber98 ?

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