This doesn’t seem to me like it would take a lot of training. They aren’t going to need to debug or code aything, They just operate the truck. The software is supposed to be autonomous cause thats the point of self driving.
Probably not, but it’s still one more certification than a normal CDL has. But the bigger question is how you actually get the autonomous truck to save time. Does anyone here think the shift length requirements for a CDL operating an autonomous truck will be different than the requirements for a CDL operating a normal truck? The company doing the test essentially had to break the law in order to get the watermelons to the destination faster than a truck driven by a normal CDL.
1 Like
I agree. That’d definitely be part of the cost of developing the technology. But once implimented, “on-board tech support” won’t be necessary. It’d be debatable if a CDL would [eventually] even be necessary; it’d be more of a backup plan to get the truck to the destination, than something required for riding along. I could see the “driver” of autonomous trucks being the Nurse Practitioner relative to the CDL driver being a Doctor.
1 Like
But they arent operating the autonomous truck, they’re on standby to operate it. Much like a driving partner riding along in the cab, who can sit there the entire shift yet still be eligible to drive another full shift. At minimum, it’s debatable.
In that article, the driver operated the truck for 260 miles. The only portion that the self-driving truck could do by itself was the interstate highway portion. If you look at my original post, that is the portion that I said we may see self-driving trucks doing regularly in our lifetime. But not the first or last-mile portions of the trip. Autonomous driving is too far off when it comes to that - even more so for big rigs than passenger cars.
What makes you think, the way our government operates, that they aren’t going to require the “driver” to literally monitor the truck the whole entire trip, ready to step in at a moment’s notice if the system can’t handle it. Planes essentially fly themselves nowadays and they haven’t changed the shift length requirements for pilots.
I can’t possibly think the way our govt. operates, and I agree that self driving big rigs are a ways off, and unsettling. However, I can see a point in your lifetime where CDL drivers will be like harbor pilots. They will take over the rig when it leaves the departure city, gets into the destination city, or even when it gets into highly complex, high density metroplexes.
To your point of economy, I don’t think the self drivers will be economical until a CDL is not required to be the co-pilot.
2 Likes
It’s a fair point. But on the other hand, planes can’t be programmed to brake and wait for human intervention should they get confused. Once on the interstates, maintaining lanes and braking when something is in front are about the only real-time tasks needing attention
I do see, eventually, interstate driving where the rider is just available to respond to an alarm, and is otherwise telecommuting/“working from home” at another job while the truck cruises down the interstate.
2 Likes
The problem is, for a long time into the future, responding to an alarm will equate to operating a commercial vehicle, which necessitates a CDL licensed driver.
There will come a point probably soon where the big boys like Walmart pay their CDLs much less to operate their autonomous 18 wheelers than other smaller trucking outfits have to pay their CDLs to fully drive traditional 18 wheelers. But I predict in our lifetimes, there will always be CDL drivers sitting in the cabs of 18 wheelers. 100% autonomous loading dock to loading dock trucks with no human operator are father off than 50 years.
1 Like
Do you think it will be that long because of the regulations and acceptance by society? Or the technology? I think the technology for 100% autonomous is much closer than 50 years.
I think as long as there are human drivers on the road and sidewalks, and the belief that one driver/passenger/pedestrian death from an autonomous vehicle is too many (even though we all know it would be fewer than if humans were driving), we won’t be there. Maybe that will happen before 50% of the vehicles on the road are autonomous, but I’m not holding my breath. But once we cross that threshold, I think all bets are off. But I don’t know how we get to that point. I think it’s more than 50 years away though.
Here’s one reason I think we’re that far away: We’ve had 10 years of EV mass production and availability and we aren’t even REMOTELY close to 1% of the cars on the road being EVs. The technology required to make and adopt EVs is nothing compared to 100% autonomous trucks. I could easily see 50 years from now that half the country is still driving ICE cars (let alone half the world). EV adoption would have to be exponential for decades to get to 50%. There’s no sign that is happening soon. So if something as simple as EV adoption may not happen in 50 years, how could something as complicated and economically unproven as autonomous truck adoption happen in 50 years. Keep in mind, there is a non-monetary benefit to owning and driving an EV. Trucking businesses don’t care nearly as much about non-monetary benefits as consumers in their daily lives do. You won’t have businesses in general even CONSIDERING autonomous truck adoption until there is a guaranteed money savings. Money savings on autonomous trucks isn’t even in the ballpark yet. I don’t know if the lobbyists for the autonomous truck industry have even been born yet.
2 Likes
I’ve worked for one of the big tech companies for 15 years now. I’d never trust any of these companies to develop self-driving software capable of autonomous control without human supervision.
It takes a mammoth effort to run AWS, Azure, etc and those services still go down fairly regularly. Except when this goes down because a dev has a bug in his code that was won’t fixed, car accidents happen and people die. I don’t see society accepting that.
5 Likes
You make a lot of good points meed18. We’ll have to see what happens.
I definitely agree people will be afraid of self driving cars killing people. that may or may not impede their development. Govt doesn’t always pander to the fears / desires of the masses especially when theres fat lobbying dollars aruging otherwise.
EV adoption and self driving car adoption are quite different situations. The techology is also very different. To make EVs more mainstream the only technology innovation helpful is major innovation in batteries. Everything else for EVs is already in place and perfectly servicable and wo’t require innovation. Self driving cars requires innovation in computing and software. Computing power doubles constantly. Either way though I think the hurdles for adoption aren’t the technology but peoples attitudes towards them. Lots of peple are resistant to EVs for a number of reasons. People will be resistant to self driving cars for very different reasons. Once the technology is in place for self driving cars there will be people who want to buy them and the thing that will stop could be laws banning or limiting self driving cars.
It mostly all hinges on the laws. If the nation says self driving cars and trucks are allowed then they’ll be on the roads once the technology works.
2 Likes
I think there is a big difference between “self-driving cars” and “autonomous long haul trucking”. Running on an interstate at a constant speed in a single designated lane is much, much simpler than programming the full driving experience (relatively speaking).
I agree that the first and final miles may never be solved for self-driving. But there are an awful lot of mind numbing miles in between.
1 Like
I think the solution could be in a hybrid model. Drivers report to truck stops just off the interstate right before their driverless truck arrives (they have its location on GPS on their phone). Driver hops in, drives the truck from the truck stop to its destination. Finishes unloading, driver takes it wherever to load back up, then back to the truck stop. Enter in the next truck stop destination somewhere along the interstate, get out, and send the driverless truck on its way.
I think we’re 25-30 years from that at a minimum. But I could conceive of something like that in our lifetimes. I think we’ll at least see it being tested or used in small numbers. Not sure when it will become cheap enough for large scale adoption. That could be 50 years.
As far as testing is concerned, it will obviously be tested with a human behind the wheel. I wonder how many million human intervention free miles those trucks will have to go before trucking companies and the public are okay with actually removing the driver from the car. I can’t even imagine how to make that prediction.
Here’s a prediction question for you: what will be adopted en masse first? All electric 18 wheelers or autonomous 18 wheelers?
Autonomous 18 wheelers. This won’t occur until they can teach those #&%$ robots to double clutch. 
For a truck to get from point A to point B solo, I’d agree. Depending on how long the long haul is, fuel stops are just one inevitable complication to that plan.
But well before then, I could see trucks with on-board drivers, that once on the interstate the driver can do “other things” for hours at a time. Much like partner drivers who trade off the drivers seat so that the truck can travel well beyond the time restrictions of one driver, the autonomous truck will be able to take over to allow the human their mandated breaks without stopping the truck. I can see this being very practical within this decade - with the biggest obstacle, as you previously mentioned, being the law keeping up.
Also - and this may seem really stupid - I think that for wide acceptance, autonomous vehicles will need to be vocal. I think most people will find it reassuring with a car that speaks to them while driving, verification that the vehicle remains aware and hasnt frozen with it’s foot on the gas. I think I would really be unnerved riding in any vehicle that drives in silence.
2 Likes
That is a good point but I could see how some comedians could get into the act. For example, the software could curse at the human driver who cuts them off trying to make an exit. So what would be a good dialogue for the software driver? ”Hi there good-looking how are we feeling this morning?”
So you think it’s cool that the car dings when you change lanes and it thinks you’re drifting out of lane, or any of the other bells and whistles that most cars come “equipped” with? If it’s not obvious, I do not.
The only problem I see with this is how beneficial will the human be if he’s sleeping while the truck is auto-driving? Oh, is that why the truck will be vocal - to prevent human sleeping? 
My wife’s car yells at me when I take my seatbelt off WHILE IN PARK and continues until I turn off the car or put the belt back on. It also dings for the passenger.
My car dings 3 times if I take my seatbelt off while the car is moving and never bothers me again. And it doesn’t bother me if the car is in park. And it doesn’t care about my passengers.
I hate her car and I love my car.
2 Likes
A “ding” isnt vocal. Yes, I found KITT to be rather cool. 
1 Like