Prospects for WWIII

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I am a rural person to my core. Once out on my own, my first home was literally “in the woods” with no other homes nearby. Today my woods, between 20 and 25 acres, are “out back” starting about 600 feet behind my home. In both instances my home was, and is, located in a region having low population density. That latter is probably more important than any of the other details.

So when a guy like Trump comes along I instinctively do not like him. Trump is a “city boy” in every way. He is an arrogant wise guy by my standards, a person with a big mouth who enjoys shooting it off. Trump’s persona is as off putting as it can be, at least for me.

However when considerations of WWIII come to the fore, one is forced to lay aside one’s biases, regardless how fervently felt. I strongly believe, had Trump been re-elected, there would today be no Ukraine war with all of its horrible precipitates. And we would be much farther away from a possible WWIII.

Trump has a certain genius I’m uncomfortable acknowledging because I don’t like to offer someone like him credit. But where Putin is concerned this genius is clear now. Trump tolerated accusations at home of Putin love. He criticized, even threatened, NATO. This brought him no end of attacks here and in Europe. But those same Trump pronouncements surely were salve for Putin, the sorts of things which helped keep him quiescent for four years.

You could argue Trump’s unpredictability also contributed to keeping Putin off guard and at bay. And I agree it was a combination of Trump characteristics which undoubtedly did the job. But at the bottom line, Trump did do the job, thereby offering the world greater separation from WWIII. He deserves credit for that, regardless how much I still dislike him and his arrogance.

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OR, and hear me out, had Trump been reelected, Putin would have succeeded in his initial plan to capture Kiev in a few days, disband & execute their democratically elected government and replace it with his own, who would immediately capitulate DPR, LNR, and Crimea (and release the fresh water for Crimea). And even if it didn’t happen in a few days, because we’d likely still be providing intelligence, it’d still be much quicker without the financial and military assistance we provided.

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I’m pretty sure it’s be either this, or we would’ve bluntly defended Ukraine with all our might. There wouldn’t have been all the charades of being involved without looking like we’re involved. Probably depending on if Trump felt the Ukrainians were helpful in investigating Hunter’s corrupt business dealings over there.

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Nah, Trump likes Putin way too much to send our troops to fight his.

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Y’all keep sayin’ that, when in reality all we ever actually saw was the lack of trying to bully Putin into accepting our Western ways.

I know we live in an age where if you arent actively and venomoulsy lynching/cancelling/ostracizing anyone who utters a off-hand comment that you find objectionable, then you inherently must be approving of and endorsing every thought that person has ever had about anything. But still…

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And Zelensky, Et al., are certainly acting like a Democrat elected government. Maybe they should just skip the middleman and “elect” Hunter [snort snort] Biden as their President. That would cut out everything but the 10% to the big guy.

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Except Trump was actively praising Putin and other despots.

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Yeah, 'cause actively pissing him off has worked so well for the next guy…

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And you believed him? You cannot fool me. You’re smarter than that.

Trump is a manipulative SOB. And that goes for anyone, Putin included.

When evaluating such a person it’s important to go to their bottom line. Putin laid back for four years. After Trump departed, Putin pounced.

Q.E.D.

I dislike Trump, among other reasons, because he is a more willing and aggressive manipulator of other people than I am. That’s not a characteristic I admire. But I guess it is something which can serve a POTUS well, at least at times. Putin is a VERY tough customer. Trump managed him successfully. Somehow. It rankles me a good bit. But I have to give Trump credit for that. He kept us aloof from (new) wars and we never came close to WWIII when Trump was in the big chair. The current shooting war with Russia, even through a surrogate, leaves me feeling queasy and nervous. Nukes, should it ever come to that, are for keeps.

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Yes. I don’t think he’s intelligent enough to be the manipulative mastermind you think he is. He’s just a bully who is submissive to other bullies.

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Apparently not.

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Comment from elsewhere on impacts of the war and our response

I think two foreign and one domestic issues are underestimated in the US. First issue is how Germany is best case headed for a recession with a worst case of depression. Best guess is that Putin waits until winter to turn off nat gas to Germany. The choice then will be something along the lines of do you shut down the Infineon/VW/Mercedes factory or the heat to 10,000 people? Gotta choose one or the other. Infineon plants sole source some chips for electric vehicles, world wide. Point being contagion to the rest of the world, including the US is possible.

Second issue is there is going to be widespread starvation in third world countries. Seems unavoidable at this point. Sri Lanka is just the first of many to flare up. People are literally going to die. Part of the problem is the very strong US dollar, which makes it more difficult for non US countries/corps to pay back dollar denominated debt. Will there be any spillover to the US/Canada?

I side with the growing consensus that the Fed will cause a “hard landing.” Question is how hard and how soon? Everybody gets to make their own probabilistic forecast. In the meantime, I think I will polish up the crystal ball a little more. .

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Not to put a fine point on it but this is bullshit. Let’s contrast relations with Russia and other enemies under Obama-Biden and Biden. Let’s start with this famous hot mike moment

Sure enough, two years later in 2014 the Russians took over Crimea with the tacit approval of Obama,

Contrast that with President Trump’s policy. He imposed strong sanctions on Russia and actively lobbied Germany to stop funding the nordstream2 pipeline

One of the first things Biden did was to approve the nord stream 2 pipeline

Biden’s shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan with the loss of American soldiers’ lives was ample evidence to Putin that the United States would not stop him from invading Ukraine. In the early days of the war Biden was telling Zelenskyy to get out of the country. But Zelenskyy had the backbone to stay and fight.

I have documented everything I said. You just make idiotic claims with no evidence and no logic,

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An unbridled hatred for Trump is all the evidence and logic he and many others need.

The hatred goes beyond the personal, the Trump persona. It extends to a Trump conservative agenda which is anathema for socialists who are doing their level best to steer America in precisely the opposite direction. Such differences of opinion with Trump and his supporters are completely irreconcilable. No credit can ever be given for anything Trump did or does. It is always wrong.

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Except you didn’t document everything you said and made idiotic claims with no evidence:

Also:

That wasn’t Biden’s plan, it was Trump’s plan and deadline that the Biden administration had to follow.

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Scripta, Again you make claims without any evidence but I will respond anyway since your claims are so obviously wrong

Re. You Question my statement re Obama tacit approval of Crimea invasion. Obama‘s response was so weak that it was tacit approval. This from the president of the Ukraine at the time

That wasn’t Biden’s plan, it was Trump’s plan and deadline that the Biden administration had to follow.

Trump‘s plan was subject to change with conditions. Conditions had plainly changed given the speed with which the Taliban took over the country after Biden withdrew Allied forces. Even before Biden withdrew he stopped providing support personnel for the Afghanistan Air Force effectively removing them from the fight. This from the left-wing politico

Biden has not hesitated to scrap President Trump‘s plans including ending sanctions on the nord stream 2 and on Russia as I documented in my previous post

I am going to stop responding to you unless you present evidence for your statements.

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Weak response != tacit approval.

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I tend to believe that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

Re: Trump and Putin, I think Trump liked the guy. I think he wished he could get away with the same things Putin does - making “disloyal” people disappear, holding sham elections, horseback ride shirtless, that kind of thing. Putin runs Russia exactly the way Trump ran the Trump Organization and the way Trump wished he could run 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

I also think, in the course of conducting real estate deals in and around New York City, it was in Trump’s best interest not to piss off Russian nationals who had ties to the Kremlin. He either did business with them, or wanted to in the future. Pissing off Putin wasn’t a means to an end there.

I think it was these two things that made Trump say the things he said about Putin. Unlike the liberal conspiracy theorists, I doubt there was any dirt or blackmail the Russians were holding over his head. But I also believe that there was no 4D chess going on - Trump is a simpleton that likes Big Macs and Diet Cokes. There’s nothing wrong with that, but I think it’s a stretch to assert that the guy is an intellectual genius capable of outwitting the Russians.

Now, I agree with much of the policy behind the Trump administration - low taxes, minimal government interference (sans their foray into tariffs), the SCOTUS nominees. All the conservative stuff was good. But I really wonder what the US response would be to the Ukraine war if Trump was in office. I suspect he’d be a “neutral” third party since the “disloyal” Ukranians never dug up the dirt on Hunter Biden that he so desperately wanted. He couldn’t wait for the Justice Department to do their job.

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Golf Foxtrot Lima!

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This is not a “with all due respect” cya statement, but I always give consideration to your posts. I know that they do not come from a TDS, or PoD state of mind.

While I can’t disagree with all of your “thoughts”, and I really don’t want to, I’m unsure if your explanations are the simplest ones.

Please insert “think” into all of the following …

Trump would love to best Putin, in any way possible, even if it was in his own mind. Also, I am not privy to the way that Trump ran the Trump organization, but presume that it was successful enough so as not to fail.

Trump would, regrettably, but without a doubt, get into a nuclear pi$$ing match with Putin due to, not only his confidence in the USA, but his disdain for the remnants of Communism, of which, Putin is a hammer and sickle flag waver (and probably not the least fortunate amongst us kind). Thus, I do not agree that Trump was willing to be a door mat for Putin so as to make money. Yes, I know you didn’t use those words, but that was my impression. If you meant otherwise, please correct me.

As for your doubt of his Ukraine - Russia response, I suspect it would have been more harsh that you imply, particularly if he had ANY support in Congress or in Europe.

Let’s look at it this way – If Trump were in office, and supporting Ukraine, imagine the headlines of Ukrainian rapes, tortures, child-killings, indentured immigrants, slavery, etc. However, if Ukraine provided any proof of the Biden Family Criminal Enterprise, they would have had more tanks, diesel, and ammunition than Ukraine could sell, waste, screw-up, or use.

In other words, imagine the current administration’s response if Russia had hired Hunter. :wink: