The 2020 USA POTUS election politics, the civil war, and the world war (Part 1)

If you’re in the stock market, and if Biden wins and you do not sell, you’re making a beeeeeg mistake. All the old regulations and policies that Trump thankfully canned will come back in force destroying business prospects, America will no longer be of first concern at the top, and the market will stagnate or fall.

You might want to invest in China, though. Biden will do whatever it takes to prop them up.

The market certainly thinks so. The price for insurance against market drops across the election is bigger than its ever been.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/u-s-election-priced-as-worst-event-risk-in-vix-futures-history

Agreed. Few things could be more obvious. But, again, China will re-surge without Trump’s strictures. Biden, if successful, could be the best POTUS China ever elected.

Joke of an AG.

Oh right. Not really the AG. Actually the Personal Attorney for a mob boss. When’s AMC going to start a “Better Call Bill” series?

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Oh, yeah!! For sure Eric Holder is much more your kind of AG. You know, B. Hussein Obama’s “wing man”. Remember him? What a prize that dude was. He was so corrupt he was actually found to be in contempt of Congress and he was very nearly impeached!!

Barr is a saint when compared with Holder . . . who was a consummate idiot.

Biden gets in, look for another AG like Holder. :stuck_out_tongue:

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https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/09/02/cuomo-trump-would-need-an-army-with-him-if-he-walked-new-york-citys-streets-1315077

“He can’t have enough bodyguards to walk through New York City,” Cuomo said on Wednesday night. “Forget bodyguards, he better have an army if he thinks he’s going to walk down the streets in New York.

Isn’t this a pretty clear threat to the President?

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Four year old Trump ad. (Lol, shortly after Trump hosted the show).

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The 2008 and 2012 general elections don’t count?

No. Best case is you should not be able to vote in person if your mailed ballot was received and processed before the voter lists are printed for your in-person voting location. And the mailed in ballots were processed up to the day of the election in the past (and may even be longer this year). So you might be able to sneak in both votes in a dumb* system with such a time gap (*a critical section without concurrency control leads to a race condition :nerd_face:). And the counters should not even know how you voted (because voting is anonymous and the ballots are processed after your name was checked off as having voted), but should be able to charge you with a felony (and if convicted, prevent from voting ever again, plus take away other rights).

And you’ve twisted the argument. Just because fraud is possible, doesn’t meant it is occurring in a statistically significant way. We do have proof of some fraud, but what we do have is extremely, extremely rare and does not change the results (unproven example above affecting smaller local elections notwithstanding). Harsh punishment for fraud is one way to prevent it. The president should not be encouraging people to commit fraud just to test the system or to prove a point.

The article you linked only describes that the risk is high. It does not say that the market would perform better or worse depending on who wins. The risk may be high because the election could be contested and we might not know who’ll be the next president for a while.

Please provide something else to show that “the market certainly thinks” that it would be a mistake to not sell if Biden wins, because what you provided does not support what you wrote. I read elsewhere that a Biden win is already priced-in, therefore a Trump win might cause a drop.

Right, the very high implied volatility for futures contracts across the election date means the market thinks there’s a combination of a very high likelihood of a very big market move (either way). A contested election wouldn’t generate this unless the market also thought there was a big difference in the fair price for stocks between the two candidates, and I think that’s also a pretty unlikely scenario.

I think it’s also clear that Wall Street thinks Biden would be bad for stocks.

The main factor driving this is his misguided higher corporate tax rate, which will not only depress corporate net earnings (and hence valuation multiples based off P/E), but also reduce US competitiveness vs foreign jurisdictions leading to companies merging or reincorporating elsewhere as we saw under Obama and which completed reversed after Trump’s successful corporate tax cuts. Taxing companies isn’t effective anyway (you’re taxing some combination of their employees, customers, and shareholders), and a much better idea is to keep the US corporate tax rate at or below international norms to encourage business development here rather than abroad.

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You are kidding, right? I can understand that comment from your political posts, but the posts that you make on the financial threads indicate that you do think for yourself. If all you want to do is post negative things about Trump, traditional values, conservatives, patriotic symbols, etc., why must they be couched as something you just woke up to?

Your posts on financial threads also indicate that you know full well that your post is the worst possible slant on all subjects from the democrat playbook.

And just to be fair, Trump does want to defund morons and those who don’t think like them. :smile: I would bet that he also wants to defund at least 25% of the government. He will try to do that next year, but will probably be tied up with more impeachment votes and little support from Republicans. It seems that they too, despite claims to the contrary, enjoy lots of pork on their plate and in their wallets.

I’d think you would love this? It’s get a whole bunch of “dumb” voters off the rolls and out of the way for future elections.

The real problem is that you fear they won’t be caught by the system. But then there still wouldn’t be any evidence of fraud, so (as we’ve been repeatedly told) it’d be stupid and baseless to be concerned about fraud.

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Martyr for the cause. Antifa assassin not taken alive when the cops came to arrest him.

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Trump Once Again Tells Americans To Vote Twice In November

"Donald Trump once again told Americans to vote twice during a rally in Pennsylvania, his latest effort to undermine an expected surge in mail-in ballots this November.

Speaking to a crowd at a nearly two-hour rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, the president criticized efforts to keep voters safe during the election…

“These mail-in ballots are a disgrace, and they know it,” Trump said Thursday of states that have extended absentee voting provisions. He went on to urge members of the crowd to send in their absentee ballots, then suggested they vote again in person and leave it up to election officials to weed out the duplicates."

Pennsylvania’s attorney general, Josh Shapiro, weighed in on the matter moments later on Twitter, saying the state’s election laws were clear: “One person, one vote.”"

Trump is still spreading incredible lies about voter fraud, telling people directly to break the law, and trying to screw-up the voting process. What an irresponsible nitwit, or just a dictatorial plan to destroy democratic processes and turn America into his own fiefdom.

The polls are for voting, not for clogging up by people who want to vote twice. Mail-in ballots often arrive after the election date. Mail-in voting has worked well for many years.

That’s WRONG!!

Trump suggested that if a person choose to vote by “mail in ballot” to check at regular voting precinct to see if ballot had been received. If it didn’t show up as on record to go ahead a vote in person.

So the President did not tell Americans to vote twice. Just be sure your vote is recorded,

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I disagree. While I do like the occasional honey pot, this borders on ridiculous. And I do not fear that they won’t be caught by the system, as that should be extremely easy – they check off people’s names for mail-in and in-person votes. They also input it back into their voter database to know who voted and who didn’t, because in some states if you don’t vote in a few elections in a row, you lose your absentee status or get purged completely and need to re-register. Since they’re inputting the information back already, it should be trivial to detect duplicate votes.

Trump is encouraging voter fraud. It turns out it exists and it’s coming from the President of the US who is encouraging illegal voter activoty.

From Lawrence Tribe:

“I was just testing whether this state can detect voter fraud when I showed up to vote a second time”

— is about as good a defense as:

“I broke into the bank just to test whether it has a good alarm system"

Memo to Mr. Trump:

You’re committing a felony by urging North Carolinians to cast illegal second votes.

Not that you care."

It is against the law to vote twice or cast two ballots, so if you show up at the polls on election day having mailed in a ballot, and try to vote, you are breaking the law, The polls are not where you go to check on mail-in ballots.

Why not!!

Just say, out loud. I’m against the President. So go vote for Biden. Who cares…

Biden can read more truthfully and honestly than that other guy, end of quote.

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