Whither bonds? .

I wonder if they’re worried that the guy who originally broke the back of the GBP is going after the policies of their current PM.

ETA: Remembered his name … big Democrat, pro-drug donator - George Soros.

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hmm wonder if this is canary for US?

The gorilla in the room that most of the financial press ignores is that United States national debt at 130% plus our GDP. I read an article on zerohedge that a lot of that is short term so interest on debt with 4%+ interest rates could be above $1 trillion a year.

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Ugly, Tailing 10Y Auction Stops At Highest Yield Since 2009 As Foreign Buyers Flee

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which means higher yields?

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Yes. The 10 year treasury bond just broke 4% (4.02%)

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

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look out above. This is what years of low rates does. Wonder if it’s time to “lock in” these rates or 5% next?

With a huge national debt, continuing deficit spending, and a $9 trillion fed balance sheet that they claim to want to reduce, I expect interest rates to increase.

To me, the sweet spot is the six months tBill that is currently yielding 4.3%

Edit. That is still far below the inflation rate. For longer term needs, I am buying short-term TIPS. There’s a lot of fooling around with the CPI but over time the basic underlying inflation will determine their return.

what if one seeks to annuitize/lock in rates with the theory that '“terminal” rate is 5% beyond which national debt you mention will be untenable?

See my added comment in the previous post. The United States may be the least worst place for bond buyers but at some point the SHTF and people will refuse to buy US bonds at low rates

Stein’s Law

“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

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Yes, trees don’t grow to the sky. But i want to be close to peak since I want to lock it in/cut the tree down.

More macro than I usually like but a good point and good comments

A steady upwards march of sovereign yields would likely lead to financial instability by pushing some financial sector entities into insolvency. Global regulations post-GFC mandated many of these entities to hold sovereign debt as safe assets, but sovereign debt is actually not safe . They are free of default risk but can still suffer equity like price declines with volatility that approaches that of crypto. Recently, some investors in longer dated gilts were pushed dangerously close to insolvency and saved only by emergency central bank intervention. Note that losses from bonds can be redistributed through the financial system using hedges, but not eliminated .

Financial crisis can arise when investors discover their safe assets are in fact not safe. The GFC arose in part because highly rated private label MBS securities that were considered safe were actually risky. The sudden repricing of those securities raised widespread solvency concerns that precipitated into a run on the financial system. Similarly, the European Sovereign Debt Crise arose in part because the debt of peripheral European sovereigns were considered safe when they were actually not. The repricing of peripheral debt raised solvency concerns of the European banking system and also led to a run on the financial system. The setup today appears similar, but this time may be different.

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On a micro level, people who hold the 60-40, total stock market – total Bond market portfolio, found out the hard way this year that both can go down big at the same time.

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The five year tips auction result today, October 20, was “disappointing” because it was less than the rate on similar bonds in the secondary market right before the auction. But since the coupon rate, 1.625%, is much higher than recent auctions, you will not have to pay a premium, which reduces the deflation risk. This bond could be a good buy on the secondary market when it issues on October 31.

my in laws are in that camp. Went to all individual bonds couple of years ago as they retired. Fido says hold to maturity at this point rather than sell at huge losses (down 20%)

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At the very least, sell the loser bonds and get a capital loss carry forward. You can buy some other bond or bond etf and hold that instead.

they’re all in IRAs :frowning:

Rising rates / rate expectations are not kind to long duration bonds. This is not the diversification you were promised.

Long bonds vs SPY, YTD 2022
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But finally short bonds are paying gasp… interest! Hold to maturity and avoid trading

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Bond volume at 2008 highs, market top?