Whither bonds? .

More problems for treasurys

good news for us buyers/rate chasers though? About to buy some at 4+% and debating how long to lock in rates. Don’t need the $ for a few years but what if they go north of 5%

Interest rates down big time today but stocks are up about 4%. For now, the important factor is don’t fight the fed.

Hit Peak/terminal rates? Not sure if we’re out of the woods yet…

Far from it IMO. But for now on sideline not buying anything longer than 6 months.


How do you feel debt limit next month affect things? Apparently lot of liquidity issues too unlike last time in 2020

Makes headlines, won’t matter. One thing Our Betters can agree on in Congress is wanting to spend more of our money.

Meanwhile, on the investment front for bonds.


Agreed, used to be GOP was fiscal conservative too (not just social) . Now they’re both drunk sailors. I do think Fed deficits will affect terminal rates when Treasuries if hit say 5.5%+

Good graph. Mean reversion means better days ahead??

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We are testing the limits of Stein’s law

if something cannot go on forever, It will stop

The debt limit is kabuki theatre. The real issue is as you observed how long will the world keep buying our debt?