was short bonds,but much harder here. Looking to short stocks again and USD as things progress.
expects recession in 2023. No soft landings in history with 5%+ inflation
if you’ve got irresponsible monetary policy, you want Bitcoin in a bull market and gold in a bear market
expects macro chaos for the next several years
still long energy stocks, some risk in a big recession but not seeing demand destruction at these prices, can see them moving higher over a year or two.
in 45 years as investor, never seen a situation like now with no good historical precedents, hence his lower conviction
“For those tactically trading, it’s possible the first leg of that has ended. But I think it’s highly, highly probable that the bear market has a ways to run,” the founder of Duquesne Family Office said at the 2022 Sohn Investment Conference.
Last 5-10 minutes I’d you want his overall concerns, but the whole thing was quite good.
Stan’s the man … baseball or finman
I didn’t know he was still alive. Thanks for pointing out his coordinates.
shorting the USD is a decent idea to me.
can’t argue with his recession idea, but it would be nice to narrow it down to less than a year
gold’s good
I don’t understand his idea of macro chaos. I expect both micro and macro over-management multiplied by an implied idiot factor.
Who can argue with Energy … well Oil. I doubt if he’s investing in non-subsidized “alternative lifestyles energy” ideas scams.
He’s got me beat on investing years, but I’ve been watching markets for almost 60 years. I didn’t have money to invest (risk, in my eyes) that early in my earning career, but I was very interested.
Rarely can we accurately see history repeating - we’d like to see it, we can imagine it. However, we end up having to make it fit some scenario, after the fact. Usually, it’s well after the fact
Yes, there will always be someone who “called” the top, turn, end, bottom, etc. There are over 4 billion people on the planet. Show me someone who’s accurately called the top or bottom two consecutive times without errors in between, and whoa!, now I’m interested.
ETA: Re my last sentence - That’s why there are millions (okay, hundreds of thousands) of people calling the top and bottom. If one of them hits two in a row, he’s got a bank in his pocket.
Agreed, xerty. Looking like an equities blood bath with Wednesday approaching and (merely) the possibility of a 0.75% Fed hike announcement that afternoon.
I don’t think Powell has the cajones. But I have been wrong so many times before.
That’s a strange way to put it. Presumably everyone wants and expect the FED to fight inflation and increase rates, right? I’m gonna LOVE what the FED is doing. I’m also gonna LOVE that those “nobodies” don’t like it, because hopefully it’ll make everything more reasonably priced than it has been.
The world is net long stocks and bonds, and you’ve seen how they’ve both been reacting this week to the increasing pressure on the Fed to accelerate their rate hikes. Both will fall if hikes are larger than expected, so in that sense the average “everybody” is going to be unhappy. Those who have more cash and less investments will be able to buy cheaper.
The emerging story appears to be that the Fed was spooked by the latest upside CPI surprise and decided to do a 75bp hike but 1) because it was in a black-out period and 2) didn’t want to surprise markets, called up the WSJ and leaked the news
Falling knife, IMO. There will be a short term rebound next week, but then more sales afterwards. TBH, market valuations prior to the pandemic were already inflated due to unnecessarily easing monetary policy. Valuation should be a lot lower.
Agree. I added SPY short yesterday on the Fed news and am adding a bit more today.
If the model is “raise rates until commodity prices fall and tame inflation”, well, there’s no shortage of commodity demand right now so that’s going to take a lot of pain. I don’t think they’ll do that, but I think it’ll be bad when ppl realize they can’t or won’t control inflation due to constraints from our $30T in debt.
Yes, that is why I added that prior to the pandemic the Fed had engaged in unnecessary monetary easing. We have to go much lower than the January 2020 valuations, IMO.
BTW, earnings aren’t going to stay at current levels, at least in the industries I follow closely. Samsung announced earlier today they’re asking equipment suppliers to put orders on hold for a few weeks. In the semi-cap industry that is a really bad signal.
In this case, it means Samsung anticipates decline in chip demand. They already have sufficient installed capacity to satisfy foreseeable demand.
Samsung is the first to freeze orders. Next big shoes to fall would be TSMC and Intel. Wondering what Intel will do, as their management has been lobbying Western capitals asking for money to build new fabs in the name of “national security.”
