The 2022 election politics

The Supreme Court is gradually undoing the rulings that kept President Trump from being able to challenge the fraudulent election results in court.

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(my opinion)

Abortion decision impact on fall 2022 elections

The Democrats will, of course, squeeze the last drop of juice out of today’s SCOTUS ruling. Every minute they can talk about, scream about, a topic unrelated to inflation, energy prices, the border, and all the rest of their maladministration is a win for the Dems. And akin to their phony House “Select Committee” fiasco, abortion is such a topic.

As with so much else, though, it comes down to ten Republican Senate votes OR doing away with the filibuster:

I don’t think the Dems have ten Senate votes among Republicans, though they could indeed have a few. And I believe Sinema would vote to restore abortion rights nationwide, while votes from Manchin and Casey are at least suspect and questionable. And I think both Sinema and Manchin will stand firm on the filibuster.

So at the bottom line I believe any effort by Democrats legislatively to restore abortion rights nationwide will fall short. But this new issue will offer them a wonderful opportunity to swing yet another bright shiny object before the eyes of the American public, with of course the unwavering cooperation of their wholly owned American mainstream media. And with the election coming at them like a freight train, the Democrats need all the bright shiny objects they can conjure.

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Here are some races in the primaries being held today Tuesday, June 28 that interest me.

In the New York governor primary on the Republican side, US rep. Lee Zeldin is taking on Andrew Giuliani. I heard an interview of Giuliani today and he did not seem too sharp. His main pitch was getting rid of mask mandates for Covid. Surely Hochul is vulnerable on more issues than that.

The Illinois redistricting caused a lot of incumbents running against other incumbents, even on the Democrat side. on the Republican side, a Trump endorsed representative Mary Miller had a verbal slip and the left media pounced. I would like Miller to win if only to stuff it down their throats. The Republican governor primary is involving huge $$. I would’ve preferred if their donors spread the money around the country to other GOP candidates.

The Colorado primary has interesting races but I do not understand the state. It is incredible how fast the Democrats flipped it.

From my understanding of the SCOTUS opinion, these sort of restrictions aren’t necessarily unconstitutional. What I am saying is that there is nothing in the opinion saying that states can’t have lots of hoops to jump through to get a permit as long as people who aren’t prohibited possessors actually have the opportunity to get a permit.

One of my projects is to read Justice Thomas’ opinion. He probably addresses this issue and lays out some guidelines for lower courts on permitted regulations. But I have to confess I have not read it yet.

Edit. I am willing to bet that the Ninth Circuit will ignore Thomas’ ruling and rely on Roberts to fight granting cert.

in New York, it is Zeldin versus Hochul. Trump-backed Miller won in the primary for the House seat in Illinois.

More results

Good Joe vs Bad Joe

Heard on the street:

Republican Senate candidate in GA, Walker, is polling ten points behind Warnock.

Republican Senate candidate in PA, Oz, is polling well behind his Democrat rival.

Bottom line:

Not looking great for Republicans in November, in a year which is supposed to be a GOP year!

Q: Exactly how stupid are Republicans?

A: Remarkably so!

The Republicans actually are poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. All they need do is lay low on abortion until after this fall’s elections. Thereafter there is an excellent chance they will have enough power to deal with abortion as they see fit.

But not now. Not with Biden calling for an abortion filibuster exception!

Have the Republican dumbasses forgotten Kyrsten Sinema is a woman? This leaves Biden’s dream only one vote, that of Joe Manchin, away. And Joe is now pro-choice:

It’s scarcely more than four months until the November elections. But the Republicans are rabidly doing all they can right now, pulling out ALL stops, to anger and intimidate pro-death Democrats.

Patience wins the prize. Republicans have none. They richly will deserve the fate which may be awaiting them.

Good it now appears I am wrong . . . . but no thanks to Republicans.

Both Sinema and Manchin are sticking with their filibuster support.

My respect for these two is up, especially my respect for Sinema.

Continue to believe, though, that Republican extremists could still outsmart themselves on this one if they are unable to rein in their anti-abortion exuberance before the fall elections.

Republicans have NOT won the 2022 fall general elections YET!!

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The Republicans actually are poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. All they need do is lay low on abortion until after this fall’s elections .

Patience wins the prize. Republicans have none.

I will say, I was genuinely surprised that anyone from the pro-life movement that also wanted to increase the Republican power-base in Washington would have thought it was a good idea to push this issue out there now, within 6 months of what people feel is a critical midterm season.

Definitely seems like a total failure to obey the principal of “when your opponent is making a mistake, don’t interrupt them” (in terms of them being able to let Biden politically own the economic challenges).

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From Emerson College poll

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you are assuming that the Supreme Court decision will harm Republicans. I think the opposite is true. It will motivate many Republican voters who might otherwise have sat out the election. The Democrats are hoping it will motivate their voters but they have a steep hill to climb imo. We shall see.

I mean this crop of Democrats, ie Biden, Obama, etc, promised to codify Roe nationally repeatedly and never did when they had enough political power to do it. I think they just took it for granted as a “never give it to them, motivate the base” issue, ala turning down Trump’s immigration proposal for Dreamers… “we don’t want to solve the problem, we want to keep fundraising off of it”.

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That is not an assumption, and it is not the thinking, that was at the base of my (earlier) post. Instead:

It’s not per se what the Court did. It’s how Republicans react to what the court did, and in particular how they react prior to the 2022 general election in November.

Rabid, off the chain, anti-abortion measures, with no exceptions for rape, for incest . . . . . . attacks on the “morning after” pill . . . . . . threats to criminalize women who seek abortion out of state . . . . . and more . . . . . are the sorts of stuff I have in mind. “Let’s go crazy” anti-abortion measures such as those are all but guaranteed to piss off, and energize, the Democrats prior to the election. Face fact:

Democrats are already “that close” to being able to codify Roe into law nationally. They are only two (Democrat) votes away. Only fools, and so many Republicans qualify, seek further to anger Democrats right now. It is insanity.

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From the LA Times:

As I wrote (almost) one month ago:

Bass will be the next LA Mayor

The LA Times is hardly unbiased. Remember they famously said that Larry Elder was the black face of white supremacy. Here’s the pitch from the Caruso team

“Rick went from single digits to a runoff in just a few months on the strength of his message around dealing with homelessness, crime and corruption,” said spokesman Peter Ragone. “This fall, voters will have a clear choice between a politician who says she can’t fix homelessness anytime soon and a civic leader who can lower crime and clean up L.A.”

You are not in the belly of the beast as I am. The drug addict encampments on the streets and the massive crime increase are really frightening the voters. look at the recall of Boudin in Frisco. their mayor London breed has seen the light. She appointed conservatives to the school board and it will be interesting to see who she appoints to replace Chesa.

The drive to recall LA district attorney Gascon has really gathered steam. I don’t know the details but it would be great if the recall is on the November ballot.

but I am realistic. California has rampant voting fraud with ballot harvesting and massive mailings of ballots, print your own ballot, etc. they give themselves over a month to count the ballots and I believe the June 7 election results are not yet finalized.

there’s still a lot to happen between now and November. But I do know that your negative attitude will keep conservatives and moderates from turning out. We can be realistic without being negative.

you may not agree with them but support for restrictions on abortion is 70+% and a democrat bill allowing abortion from conception to birth plus 30 days polls badly.

I do not think that Manchin and Sinema are as principled as they seem but they are standing in for other Democrat senators who do not want to take a stand.

The worst thing the Republicans in the conservative states can do is not to seize this opportunity. President Trump stands by his principles and that is the reason he leads Biden in nationwide polling by several percentage points. The Democrats in the blue states like my California are not as timid as you are They are not afraid of pissing off conservatives and they are doubling down passing laws to use taxpayer funds to pay for abortions.
Edit. here’s a 2021 poll on opinions about abortion by trimester